CAJ | 학술논문

径流与输沙变化是水源地健康的重要表征。利用昆明松华坝水源地中和水文站1961-2011年径流和1966-2011年输沙数据，运用集中度与集中期、R/S分析等方法，对松华坝水源地径流和输沙变化、年内分配及未来趋势变化进行了定量分析。结果表明：径流和输沙均呈下降趋势，2009-2011年连续干旱导致径流和输沙骤减；输沙年内分配集中度高于径流，径流和输沙年内分配集中度分别呈下降和上升趋势；径流和输沙分别出现26和24年的长周期，径流和输沙多年平均集中期分别出现在8月中旬和上旬，且均呈提前趋势；径流未来仍将延续下降趋势，但趋势性不强，输沙未来变化趋势具有不确定性；径流和输沙年内分配集中度仍将分别延续下降和上升的趋势，且输沙年内分配未来变化的趋势性更强。
경류여수사변화시수원지건강적중요표정。이용곤명송화패수원지중화수문참1961-2011년경류화1966-2011년수사수거，운용집중도여집중기、R/S분석등방법，대송화패수원지경류화수사변화、년내분배급미래추세변화진행료정량분석。결과표명：경류화수사균정하강추세，2009-2011년련속간한도치경류화수사취감；수사년내분배집중도고우경류，경류화수사년내분배집중도분별정하강화상승추세；경류화수사분별출현26화24년적장주기，경류화수사다년평균집중기분별출현재8월중순화상순，차균정제전추세；경류미래잉장연속하강추세，단추세성불강，수사미래변화추세구유불학정성；경류화수사년내분배집중도잉장분별연속하강화상승적추세，차수사년내분배미래변화적추세성경강。
The change of runoff and sediment is the important characterization of health of water source land.Using the runoff data from 1961 to 2011 and sediment load data from 1966 to 2011 of Zhonghe hydrological station river in Songhuaba water source land , the paper utilized concentration degree and time, R/S analysis method to quantitatively analyzed the runoff and sediment load and their annual distri -bution changes , and theirs future trend Songhuaba water sources land .The results show that the runoff and sediment load showed a downward trend in the past , the continuous drought from 2009 to 2011 lead to sharp decline of runoff and sediment load;The concentration degree of annual sediment load distribu-tion is generally higher than that of runoff ,the change trends of concentration degree of annual runoff and sediment load showed downward and upward trend respectively;the runoff and sediment load appear long cycle of 26 and 24 years;average time of concentration of annual runoff and sediment load appear respec-tively in middle and early August ,and showed ahead of the trend;in the further , the runoff will continue downward trend , but the trend is not strong , the change of sediment load is uncertain;the concentration degree of annual runoff and sediment load distribution will respectively continue upward and downward trend, and the trend of concentration degree of annual sediment load distribution will stronger than that of runoff .