CAJ | 학술논문

选取云南省12个分布均匀的气象站点对TRMM 3B43 Version7降水数据进行相关性分析，利用降水Z指数进行干旱监测精度评价，分析云南省15年逐年及特大旱灾实例逐月的干旱时空特征。结果表明：TRMM数据的精度较高，多数站点的相关系数R2均在0．9以上，大部分TRMM数据比实测偏小；就全省而言年降水量有递减趋势，雨季主要集中在5-10月份占全年降水量的85．47％，降水量由东北向西南逐渐增加；单站及全省范围的TRMM-Z指数均与实测旱情趋势一致，其中11个站点的Z指数相关系数R2均在0．7～0．85左右，全省年尺度TRMM-Z指数精度比单站略高；TRMM-Z指数监测的15年旱情及旱灾实例时空特征与实情相符，旱灾程度略低于实际情况，该监测方法在本区域适用性强。
선취운남성12개분포균균적기상참점대TRMM 3B43 Version7강수수거진행상관성분석，이용강수Z지수진행간한감측정도평개，분석운남성15년축년급특대한재실례축월적간한시공특정。결과표명：TRMM수거적정도교고，다수참점적상관계수R2균재0．9이상，대부분TRMM수거비실측편소；취전성이언년강수량유체감추세，우계주요집중재5-10월빈점전년강수량적85．47％，강수량유동북향서남축점증가；단참급전성범위적TRMM-Z지수균여실측한정추세일치，기중11개참점적Z지수상관계수R2균재0．7～0．85좌우，전성년척도TRMM-Z지수정도비단참략고；TRMM-Z지수감측적15년한정급한재실례시공특정여실정상부，한재정도략저우실제정황，해감측방법재본구역괄용성강。
The 12 uniform distributed meteorological stations in Yunnan can be used to carried out corre-lation analysis to precipitation data of TRMM 3B43 V7 products.Then the precipitation Z index was used for the evaluation of dry monitoring accurancy .The paper also analyzed the monthly drought temporary and spatial feature of great drought instance in Yunnan for 15 years.The results show that TRMM data have high precision and correlation coefficient ( R2 ) in most of the stations is more than 0.9, majority of TRMM data are smaller than observed data .Annual rainfall in Yunnan has a decrease trend , the rainy season is mainly concentrated from May to October which accounts for 85 .47% of annual precipitation . The precipitation gradually increases from northeast to southwest .The TRMM-Z indexes in single station and the whole province's stations are consistent with the actual drought trend .The correlation coefficient R2 of Z index in 11 stations are about 0.7~0.8, while the province's annual scale TRMM-Z index has higher precision than that of single station .Meanwhile , the drought monitoring instances monitored by TRMM-Z index is basically consistent with the observed temporal and spatial -distribution features and drought disaster is lower than the actual degree .So the monitoring method is practical in the area .