CAJ | 학술논문

前人研究中国和中亚问题主要针对政治安全和上海合作组织自由贸易区建设，而研究中国对俄罗斯及中亚五国出口贸易影响因素的则较少。该文首次从制度距离分析中国对俄罗斯及中亚五国出口贸易的影响。文中利用1998-2012年中国对俄罗斯及中亚五国的出口贸易数据，在The Heritage Foundation 所公布的IEE数据基础上，引入制度距离建立中国对俄罗斯及中亚五国的贸易引力模型，研究制度距离对中国对俄罗斯及中亚五国出口贸易的影响。实证结果显示，不同类型的制度距离对中国对俄罗斯及中亚五国出口贸易的影响程度是不同的：反腐败和货币自由化制度距离对出口贸易产生负向作用，而投资自由度的制度距离对出口贸易产生正向作用。此外，本文还测算了中国对俄罗斯及中亚五国的贸易出口潜力指数，其值处于0.8～1.2之间，市场属于“潜力开拓型”。
전인연구중국화중아문제주요침대정치안전화상해합작조직자유무역구건설，이연구중국대아라사급중아오국출구무역영향인소적칙교소。해문수차종제도거리분석중국대아라사급중아오국출구무역적영향。문중이용1998-2012년중국대아라사급중아오국적출구무역수거，재The Heritage Foundation 소공포적IEE수거기출상，인입제도거리건립중국대아라사급중아오국적무역인력모형，연구제도거리대중국대아라사급중아오국출구무역적영향。실증결과현시，불동류형적제도거리대중국대아라사급중아오국출구무역적영향정도시불동적：반부패화화폐자유화제도거리대출구무역산생부향작용，이투자자유도적제도거리대출구무역산생정향작용。차외，본문환측산료중국대아라사급중아오국적무역출구잠력지수，기치처우0.8～1.2지간，시장속우“잠력개탁형”。
The issue of Chinese and Central Asian mainly focus on political and security , Shanghai Coop-eration Organization Free Trade Area of the problem , study on exports factors Chinese and Russia , the five Central Asian countries is less .This is first that Institutional distance analyzes the factors affecting China and Russia , the five Central Asian countries on export trade .This paper based data on China ’ s exports to Russia and central Asia five countries from 1998 to 2012 and the Index of Economic Freedom from The Heritage Foundation , establishes trade gravity model to study the effect of Institutional distance on China to Russia and central Asia five countries export trade influence .The empirical results show that different types of Institutional Distance for China to Russia and central Asia five countries export trade effect is different:Freedom from corruption and Monetary Freedom have a negative effect on export trade ,elasticity is 0.0349 and 0.0593 respectively, and the Investment Freedom have positive effects on export trade, elasticity is 0.0425.In addition, this paper also calculates the Chinese exports to Russia , five central Asian countries trade potential index and its value is between 0.8 to 1.2,belongs to the export po-tential market.Furthermore, China and Russia,the five Central Asian countries can continue to expand on export .