CAJ | 학술논문

针对蒙特卡罗法计算复杂机构动作可靠度时计算效率不高的问题，提出了以计算机仿真模型为基础、蒙特卡罗法与支持向量回归机相结合的机构动作可靠性分析方法。利用该方法对摆弹机构的动作可靠度进行了仿真计算，并根据灵敏度和偏导数的定义，进行了摆弹机构的可靠性灵敏度分析。分析结果表明：摆弹机构的可靠度为0．99021，炮弹重心到齿轮轴心的距离对其可靠性的影响最大。
침대몽특잡라법계산복잡궤구동작가고도시계산효솔불고적문제，제출료이계산궤방진모형위기출、몽특잡라법여지지향량회귀궤상결합적궤구동작가고성분석방법。이용해방법대파탄궤구적동작가고도진행료방진계산，병근거령민도화편도수적정의，진행료파탄궤구적가고성령민도분석。분석결과표명：파탄궤구적가고도위0．99021，포탄중심도치륜축심적거리대기가고성적영향최대。
Based on computer simulation model combining MCS and SVR ,a method is proposed to in-crease the efficiency of computating the action reliability of the complex mechanism system .The simu-lation of action reliability of the ammunition swing device is carried out efficiently and precisely .Ac-cording to the definitions of sensitivity and partial derivative ,the sensitivity of the ammunition swing device is analyzed by Monte Carlo method .The results show that the reliability of device is 0 .990 21 and the distance from the gravity center of ammunition to the gear axis has the greatest influence on the reliability of ammunition swing device .