CAJ | 학술논문

近几年，我国西南地区干旱频繁发生，严重影响农业生产。为了探讨干旱和水稻产量之间关系的复杂性，采用中国气象局国家气象信息中心提供的西南地区348个站气象数据，计算了西南地区干旱的变化趋势，并利用2000-2011年贵州省县级水稻产量资料分析了干旱对水稻单产的影响，探讨了干旱、水资源灌溉以及水稻产量之间的关系。结果表明：1951-2012年西南地区降水量平均减少16．9 mm/10 a，特别是8-10月降水量明显减少。同时，西南地区干旱日数呈上升趋势，平均增加3．3 d/10 a。对比水稻产量发现，当累计干旱日数少于40 d 时，干旱对水稻产量一般不会造成影响；当累计干旱日数超过86 d 时，干旱造成水稻减产20％～73％，这意味着当累计干旱日数超过3个月时，江河塘库蓄水将受到影响，进而影响水稻的灌溉，造成水稻严重减产；当累计干旱日数为40～86 d 时，水稻减产一般少于20％，但地区差异较大。
근궤년，아국서남지구간한빈번발생，엄중영향농업생산。위료탐토간한화수도산량지간관계적복잡성，채용중국기상국국가기상신식중심제공적서남지구348개참기상수거，계산료서남지구간한적변화추세，병이용2000-2011년귀주성현급수도산량자료분석료간한대수도단산적영향，탐토료간한、수자원관개이급수도산량지간적관계。결과표명：1951-2012년서남지구강수량평균감소16．9 mm/10 a，특별시8-10월강수량명현감소。동시，서남지구간한일수정상승추세，평균증가3．3 d/10 a。대비수도산량발현，당루계간한일수소우40 d 시，간한대수도산량일반불회조성영향；당루계간한일수초과86 d 시，간한조성수도감산20％～73％，저의미착당루계간한일수초과3개월시，강하당고축수장수도영향，진이영향수도적관개，조성수도엄중감산；당루계간한일수위40～86 d 시，수도감산일반소우20％，단지구차이교대。
Extreme weather and climate events have become more frequent and severe in recent years in the con-text of global warming.These extreme events bring serious impacts on human survival and sustaining de-velopment of society.Drought is one of the major types of extreme climatic events in China,which seri-ously affects agriculture and social-economic development.The domestic extreme drought events in recent years mostly occur in Southwest China,influencing the agriculture severely.Using the high quality obser-vations from 348 weather stations and the agriculture data of county level in Southwest China,the compli-cated relationship among droughts,water supply,and rice yields is investigated. <br> The precipitation decreases in Southwest China from 1951 to 2012,with an average decadal decrease of 16.9 mm per 10 years.In particular,the precipitation decreases distinctly from August to October,mainly due to the weak South Asian monsoon.Drought days are counted by using the drought index I SWAP ,and the result shows that the number of drought days generally increases by 3.3 days per 10 years in the past several decades,especially since 2001 due to the less precipitation.Since rice cultivation is irrigated agri-culture,drought won’t directly affect rice growth.To further understand the complexity,impacts of vari-ous drought events on rice yields are investigated using high quality rice yield data collected in 70 counties of Guizhou Province,and the result indicates that the drought has little adverse but favorable impacts on rice yields when annual accumulated number of drought days is less than 40 days.It is because that this kind of drought won’t affect the rice irrigation water supply,and the temperature is usually abnormally high with more bright sunshine days during the period of drought which are actually favorable for rice growth.However,when the number of drought days is more than 86 days,rice yields will reduce by 20%-73% due to the drought and the insufficient irrigation.When the number of drought days is between 49-86 days,rice yields usually reduce by less than 20% but with large differences between different re-gions.This kind of drought has little impact on rice yields in regions of robust drought tolerance but great-ly affects rice yields in regions of weak drought tolerance.