CAJ | 학술논문

在面临不同强度的能源成本约束时，工业行业部门的生产技术进步与产出增长之间相互关系如何了？面对经济稳增长和工业降能耗的双重压力，传统的以减排为导向的能源政策是否会陷入两难境地？为此，文章利用质量阶梯模型从理论上探讨了能源成本、生产技术进步与工业产出间的作用关系，并结合中国工业分行业1993-2012年面板数据进行了实证检验，发现在考虑能源成本约束的前提下，生产技术进步对产出增长的影响成非线性化关系。为了更准确地描述这一关系，进一步利用Hansen （1999）的门槛回归方法进行了验证，发现存在着显著的双重门槛特征，在强、中、弱三种不同的能源成本约束强度下，生产技术进步的作用系数呈现出显著的差异。
재면림불동강도적능원성본약속시，공업행업부문적생산기술진보여산출증장지간상호관계여하료？면대경제은증장화공업강능모적쌍중압력，전통적이감배위도향적능원정책시부회함입량난경지？위차，문장이용질량계제모형종이론상탐토료능원성본、생산기술진보여공업산출간적작용관계，병결합중국공업분행업1993-2012년면판수거진행료실증검험，발현재고필능원성본약속적전제하，생산기술진보대산출증장적영향성비선성화관계。위료경준학지묘술저일관계，진일보이용Hansen （1999）적문함회귀방법진행료험증，발현존재착현저적쌍중문함특정，재강、중、약삼충불동적능원성본약속강도하，생산기술진보적작용계수정현출현저적차이。
What is the relationship between technical progress and output growth in industrial sector when the intensity of ener-gy cost constraint is different? Whether does the traditional energy policy of emission reduction-oriented fall into a dilemma when facing the double pressure of keeping steady economic growth and reducing energy consumption? To answer the two ques-tions, the paper analyzes theoretically the relations among energy cost, technical progress and industrial output by applying quality ladder model,and tests them empirically by using the panel data of China’s industrial sectors from the year of 1993 to 2012. The results show that the impact of technical progress on production output growth is nonlinear under the premise of the energy cost constraint. Furthermore, the paper applies Hansen (1999) threshold regression method to verify the relations more accurately,and finds that there is a significant feature of dual threshold,the effect coefficient of technical progress is remark-able different when the intensity of energy cost constraint is strong,middle or weak.