华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
EAST CHINA ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
2014年
8期
13-19
,共7页
就业弹性系数%VAR模型%脉冲响应%产业结构变动
就業彈性繫數%VAR模型%脈遲響應%產業結構變動
취업탄성계수%VAR모형%맥충향응%산업결구변동
employment elasticity%VAR model%impulse response%change of industrial structure
文章运用协整检验模型、VAR模型、脉冲响应分析等实证方法对上海市就业弹性系数与经济增长、产业结构变动、生产要素投入之间的关系进行检验。结果显示，经济增长、第二产业及第三产业的发展使就业弹性系数上升，促进了上海市就业增加。近年来经济增长及第二产业的发展逐渐进入了稳态，对促进就业的效应出现了边际递减，资本投入的增加对劳动力产生替代，影响了就业的稳定性；长期趋势来看，第三产业的就业吸纳能力强于二产业，产业结构变动的就业创造效应会增强。
文章運用協整檢驗模型、VAR模型、脈遲響應分析等實證方法對上海市就業彈性繫數與經濟增長、產業結構變動、生產要素投入之間的關繫進行檢驗。結果顯示，經濟增長、第二產業及第三產業的髮展使就業彈性繫數上升，促進瞭上海市就業增加。近年來經濟增長及第二產業的髮展逐漸進入瞭穩態，對促進就業的效應齣現瞭邊際遞減，資本投入的增加對勞動力產生替代，影響瞭就業的穩定性；長期趨勢來看，第三產業的就業吸納能力彊于二產業，產業結構變動的就業創造效應會增彊。
문장운용협정검험모형、VAR모형、맥충향응분석등실증방법대상해시취업탄성계수여경제증장、산업결구변동、생산요소투입지간적관계진행검험。결과현시，경제증장、제이산업급제삼산업적발전사취업탄성계수상승，촉진료상해시취업증가。근년래경제증장급제이산업적발전축점진입료은태，대촉진취업적효응출현료변제체감，자본투입적증가대노동력산생체대，영향료취업적은정성；장기추세래간，제삼산업적취업흡납능력강우이산업，산업결구변동적취업창조효응회증강。
Using Co-integration test,VAR model and impulse response analysis,the paper tests empirically the relationship between employment elasticity and economic growth, change of industrial structure, input of production factors in Shanghai. The results show that economic growth and development of the secondary and tertiary industries increase employment elasticity and promote employment in Shanghai. In recent years, economic growth and development of the secondary industry gradually reach a steady state,as a result,their effects on increase of employment appear marginal decrease. The increase of capital in-put has a substitution effect on labor input and affects the stability of employment. In a long-term,the employment absorption capacity of the tertiary industry becomes stronger than that of the secondary industry. The employment creation effect caused by the change of industrial structure will be enhanced.
