华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
EAST CHINA ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
2014年
8期
8-12
,共5页
居住用地供给%住房价格%存量-流量模型%土地政策调控
居住用地供給%住房價格%存量-流量模型%土地政策調控
거주용지공급%주방개격%존량-류량모형%토지정책조공
residential land supply%housing price%stock-flow model%land policy regulation
文章运用住房市场存量-流量模型，动态分析居住用地供给对新建商品住房供给及住房价格的影响，并据此模拟不同居住用地供给思路下商品住房市场的运行状况。基于上海数据的实证分析发现：政府新增居住用地供给对一定时期后的新建商品住房供给具有显著影响；居住用地供给能够影响远期住房价格，但很难对当期住房价格产生影响。模拟结果显示：增加居住用地供给所能起到平抑房价的作用较为有限。据此提出，政府居住用地供给应着眼于长期，不宜依据短期住房市场状况进行频繁调整。
文章運用住房市場存量-流量模型，動態分析居住用地供給對新建商品住房供給及住房價格的影響，併據此模擬不同居住用地供給思路下商品住房市場的運行狀況。基于上海數據的實證分析髮現：政府新增居住用地供給對一定時期後的新建商品住房供給具有顯著影響；居住用地供給能夠影響遠期住房價格，但很難對噹期住房價格產生影響。模擬結果顯示：增加居住用地供給所能起到平抑房價的作用較為有限。據此提齣，政府居住用地供給應著眼于長期，不宜依據短期住房市場狀況進行頻繁調整。
문장운용주방시장존량-류량모형，동태분석거주용지공급대신건상품주방공급급주방개격적영향，병거차모의불동거주용지공급사로하상품주방시장적운행상황。기우상해수거적실증분석발현：정부신증거주용지공급대일정시기후적신건상품주방공급구유현저영향；거주용지공급능구영향원기주방개격，단흔난대당기주방개격산생영향。모의결과현시：증가거주용지공급소능기도평억방개적작용교위유한。거차제출，정부거주용지공급응착안우장기，불의의거단기주방시장상황진행빈번조정。
The paper dynamically analyzes the impacts of residential land supply on new housing supply and housing prices by using the housing market stock-flow model,and simulates operational conditions of the housing market under different ideas of the residential land supply accordingly. It finds that, based on the empirical analysis of the data from Shanghai, the govern-ment’s increase of residential land supply has a significant impact on the supply of new housing after a certain period;the resi-dential land supply can affect the long-term housing prices, however it is difficult to have an impact on the current housing prices. The simulation results show that the increase of residential land supply can only play a limited role to stabilize housing prices. Based on the study,the paper proposes that the government’s residential land supply should focus on long-term,and should not make frequent adjustments on the basis of short-term housing market conditions.
