CAJ | 학술논문

为探明影响广西对东盟农产品出口贸易的现实因素，以期为提高广西对东盟农产品出口贸易增长水平提供政策参考，利用1999-2012年广西对东盟农产品出口贸易额、农产品优势系数、农产品出口平均关税及人民币对东盟货币汇率数据，构建广西对东盟农产品出口贸易额的多元线性回归模型，定量分析了各因素对东盟农产品出口贸易额的影响。结果发现：从影响关系上看，广西对东盟农产品出口贸易额与农产品优势系数正相关，与人民币对东盟货币汇率正相关，与农产品出口平均关税负相关；从影响程度看，农产品优势系数对广西出口东盟农产品出口贸易额的影响最大，其次为农产品出口平均关税的影响，影响最小的是人民币对东盟货币汇率，而自2010年起农产品出口平均关税不再产生影响。
위탐명영향엄서대동맹농산품출구무역적현실인소，이기위제고엄서대동맹농산품출구무역증장수평제공정책삼고，이용1999-2012년엄서대동맹농산품출구무역액、농산품우세계수、농산품출구평균관세급인민폐대동맹화폐회솔수거，구건엄서대동맹농산품출구무역액적다원선성회귀모형，정량분석료각인소대동맹농산품출구무역액적영향。결과발현：종영향관계상간，엄서대동맹농산품출구무역액여농산품우세계수정상관，여인민폐대동맹화폐회솔정상관，여농산품출구평균관세부상관；종영향정도간，농산품우세계수대엄서출구동맹농산품출구무역액적영향최대，기차위농산품출구평균관세적영향，영향최소적시인민폐대동맹화폐회솔，이자2010년기농산품출구평균관세불재산생영향。
The multiple linear regression model of Guangxi agricultural export trade with ASEAN was established by the data of trade volume, advantage coefficient, average duty and ASEAN monetary exchange rate from 1999 to 2012 to provide a reference for improving the growth level of Guangxi agricultural export trade with ASEAN based on analyzing reality factors influencing Guangxi agricultural export trade with ASEAN. There were positive correlations between trade volume and advantage coefficient,monetary exchange rate but a negative correlation between trade volume and average duty.The advantage coefficient was the main factor influencing the trade volume of Guangxi agricultural export trade with ASEAN,followed by average duty and monetary exchange rate but the average duty had no effect on agricultural product export from 2010.