CAJ | 학술논문

利用第三代区域空气质量模式CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality)及京津冀地区高分辨的污染源排放清单，基于2011年、2012年和2013年秋冬季美国国家环境预报中心全球再分析资料的气象条件分析，选取2012年10月1日至12月30日作为代表性时段，模拟了PM2.5的浓度变化趋势，同时根据《京津冀及周边地区落实大气污染防治行动计划实施细则》和2012年到2017年污染源减排控制目标，进行了减排效果评估分析.结果显示，模式系统能较好捕捉PM2.5浓度的变化趋势，海淀站和上甸子站观测与模拟值的相关系数分别为0.71和0.63.主要污染源和污染物排放量削减30%~40%后，北京市 PM2.5浓度发生了明显降低，海淀站、上甸子站和城六区的平均浓度下降率分别为(24.9±2.3)%，(20.2±2.7)%和(24.8±2.1)%.如果严格执行《京津冀及周边地区落实大气污染防治行动计划实施细则》，在气象条件和2012年相似情况下，到2017年，北京市城区PM2.5年均浓度控制在60μg/m3内的防治目标可以实现.
이용제삼대구역공기질량모식CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality)급경진기지구고분변적오염원배방청단，기우2011년、2012년화2013년추동계미국국가배경예보중심전구재분석자료적기상조건분석，선취2012년10월1일지12월30일작위대표성시단，모의료PM2.5적농도변화추세，동시근거《경진기급주변지구락실대기오염방치행동계화실시세칙》화2012년도2017년오염원감배공제목표，진행료감배효과평고분석.결과현시，모식계통능교호포착PM2.5농도적변화추세，해정참화상전자참관측여모의치적상관계수분별위0.71화0.63.주요오염원화오염물배방량삭감30%~40%후，북경시 PM2.5농도발생료명현강저，해정참、상전자참화성륙구적평균농도하강솔분별위(24.9±2.3)%，(20.2±2.7)%화(24.8±2.1)%.여과엄격집행《경진기급주변지구락실대기오염방치행동계화실시세칙》，재기상조건화2012년상사정황하，도2017년，북경시성구PM2.5년균농도공제재60μg/m3내적방치목표가이실현.
The models-3 community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) Modeling System was used to simulate PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing with the application of a high-resolution emission inventory for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in North China Plain. Based on the reanalysis of meteorological data derived from the national centersfor environmental prediction (NCEP) final analysis (FNL), in the autumn and winter of 2011, 2012, and 2013, we have chosen a representative period, October 1st to December 30th of 2012,for baseline simulation. According to the implementing measures for air pollution prevention and control action plans in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding area (hereinafter referred to as the measures) and Emission Source Control Target for the five-year period (2012~2017), we formulated an emission control scenario to evaluate the improvements in air quality with the comparison to baseline simulation. The modeling system well captured the temporal trend of PM2.5 concentrations,with a correlation coefficient of 0.71 and 0.63 betweenmodeled and measured PM2.5 daily average concentrationsat Haidian and Shangdianzi, respectively. After 30~40%reduction of emissions for main pollutants in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, PM2.5 average concentrations in Haidian, Shangdianzi, and urban area deceased by (24.9±2.3)%, (20.2±2.7)%, and (24.8±2.1)%, respectively. If the measures were strictly implemented and the meteorological conditions were similar with those in 2012, the goal of reducing PM2.5 annual mean concentration to 60μg/m3 could be reached in 2017.