CAJ | 학술논문

矿产资源的跨期优化开采是可持续发展的重要内涵之一。以最优控制理论，结合社会福利函数，建立矿产资源耗竭时期内的最优开采动态模型，对我国四种矿产资源的最佳耗竭路径进行模拟分析。通过对比2008-2013年实际生产量与最优开采量，认为中国矿产资源供给尚未达到峰值，因此，与最优开采目标相悖。最后，探讨了影响矿产资源开采路径的不确定因素，并为现阶段的开采状态如何向最优开采路径回归提供了政策参考。
광산자원적과기우화개채시가지속발전적중요내함지일。이최우공제이론，결합사회복리함수，건립광산자원모갈시기내적최우개채동태모형，대아국사충광산자원적최가모갈로경진행모의분석。통과대비2008-2013년실제생산량여최우개채량，인위중국광산자원공급상미체도봉치，인차，여최우개채목표상패。최후，탐토료영향광산자원개채로경적불학정인소，병위현계단적개채상태여하향최우개채로경회귀제공료정책삼고。
T he mineral resources intertemporal exploitation is the important content of the sustainable de-velopment .Based on the combination of optimal control theory and the social welfare function ,we estab-lished the dynamic model of inter -temporal optimal exploitation during the mineral resources exhaustion period ,and then conduct simulation analysis on the optimal production rate of four kinds of mineral re-source in China .By comparing the actual output and the optimum exploitation quantity in recent six years , we think that the supply of mineral resources has not yet to peak in incompatible with the goal of the opti-mal exploitation in mineral resources .Finally ,this article discusses some uncertain factors and provides policy reference for how to return to the optimal exploitation path at present mining stage .