CAJ | 학술논문

为提高泥石流业务预报的准确性，满足泥石流减灾的需求，运用GIS技术，设计并实现基于流域水土耦合机制的区域泥石流预报系统。通过分布式水文模型和非饱和土极限平衡法实时评估每条泥石流流域内的水土混合物密度ρ，利用ρ判定区域内每条泥石流流域内发生泥石流概率的大小，实时发布泥石流预警信息。以四川省为研究区，以2013年7月9日特大降雨过程诱发大规模泥石流灾害事件作为系统的验证实例。验证结果表明，该系统运行稳定且具有较高的预报精度，能够很好地满足泥石流减灾需求。
위제고니석류업무예보적준학성，만족니석류감재적수구，운용GIS기술，설계병실현기우류역수토우합궤제적구역니석류예보계통。통과분포식수문모형화비포화토겁한평형법실시평고매조니석류류역내적수토혼합물밀도ρ，이용ρ판정구역내매조니석류류역내발생니석류개솔적대소，실시발포니석류예경신식。이사천성위연구구，이2013년7월9일특대강우과정유발대규모니석류재해사건작위계통적험증실례。험증결과표명，해계통운행은정차구유교고적예보정도，능구흔호지만족니석류감재수구。
To improve the forecast accuracy of the debris flow and satisfy the mitigation demand of the debris flow disaster ,a debris flow forecast system based on the water-soil coupling mechanism was designed and established by using the GIS technolo-gy .In this system ,the density ρof the water-soil mixture in each debris flow watershed was calculated through the distributed hydrological model and the limit equilibrium analysis of unsaturated soil mass ,which was employed as the key factor to determine the occurrence probability of debris flow .And according to the occurrence probability of debris flow ,the system published the forecast information in real time .Taking Sichuan province as the study zone and the massive disasters of debris flow induced by the heavy rainfall process in this region on July 9 ,2013 as the test case for this system ,the verified results show that the system runs steadily with high forecast accuracy and thus can satisfy the demand of disaster mitigation .