CAJ | 학술논문

以湖北省咸宁市为例，采用灰色模型GM（1，1）及逻辑斯蒂模型分别预测咸宁市未来人口、耕地及粮食单产的变化。采用环境因子逐段订正模型计算咸宁市土地耕地生产潜力，研究结果表明：咸宁市2011年耕地单产平均水平为6575．4 kg/hm2，理论计算的耕地生产潜力为23760．2 kg/hm2，实际单产为潜在耕地生产潜力的27．7％。2011年咸宁市耕地粮食承载力压力很大，除嘉鱼县外，人口承载指数LCCI均大于1。2015年和2025年咸宁市粮食单产预测为8473．1 kg/hm2和9441．7 kg/hm2。2015年和2025年人口预测为301．9万和324．3万。对于小康型人口承载力来讲，人口承载指数LCCI，在2015年为0．79，在2025年为0．59，人口饱和度呈现下降的趋势。
이호북성함저시위례，채용회색모형GM（1，1）급라집사체모형분별예측함저시미래인구、경지급양식단산적변화。채용배경인자축단정정모형계산함저시토지경지생산잠력，연구결과표명：함저시2011년경지단산평균수평위6575．4 kg/hm2，이론계산적경지생산잠력위23760．2 kg/hm2，실제단산위잠재경지생산잠력적27．7％。2011년함저시경지양식승재력압력흔대，제가어현외，인구승재지수LCCI균대우1。2015년화2025년함저시양식단산예측위8473．1 kg/hm2화9441．7 kg/hm2。2015년화2025년인구예측위301．9만화324．3만。대우소강형인구승재력래강，인구승재지수LCCI，재2015년위0．79，재2025년위0．59，인구포화도정현하강적추세。
In this study, the grey model GM(1,1) and the Logistic model were used to predict the changes in the future popu-lation, farmland and grain yield per unit area of Xianning city , Hubei province .The piecewise-revised model by using environ-mental factors was adopted to calculate the production potential of arable land in Xianning city .The results showed that:(1) the av-erage grain yield per unit area of arable land in Xianning city in 2011 was 6575.4 kg/hm2 , the theoretical production potential of ar-able land was 23760.2 kg/hm2, and the former accounted for 27.7% of the latter; (2) in 2011, the carrying capacity of arable land for food in Xianning city was great , and the population carrying index LCCI of every county ( except for Jiayu county ) was grea-ter than 1;(3) it was predicted that the grain yield per unit area of Xianning city in 2015 and 2025 was 8473.1 kg/hm2 and 9441. 7 kg/hm2 respectively;the predicted population of this city in 2015 and 2025 was 3.019 million and 3.243 million respectively;(4) as for the well-off-type population carrying capacity , LCCI in Xianning city was 0.79 in 2015 and 0.59 in 2025, and the population saturability revealed a downward trend .