CAJ | 학술논문

利用中国1953-2012年的时间序列数据，运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数和误差修正模型探讨中国城市化对碳排放的动态影响关系。结果表明，城市化、人口、经济增长、能源强度与碳排放之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系；中国城市化对碳排放有显著正向影响，但并不是中国碳排放增长的最主要原因；城市化与碳排放之间的倒U型库茨涅茨曲线关系不明显；长期内城市化有助于抑制碳排放，短期内过快的城市化将加剧碳排放。最后提出政策建议。
이용중국1953-2012년적시간서렬수거，운용협정검험、맥충향응함수화오차수정모형탐토중국성시화대탄배방적동태영향관계。결과표명，성시화、인구、경제증장、능원강도여탄배방지간존재장기은정적균형관계；중국성시화대탄배방유현저정향영향，단병불시중국탄배방증장적최주요원인；성시화여탄배방지간적도U형고자열자곡선관계불명현；장기내성시화유조우억제탄배방，단기내과쾌적성시화장가극탄배방。최후제출정책건의。
Co-integration test,impulse response function and error correction mode are used to explore the dynamic influ-ence relationship of urbanization on carbon emission based on the China time series data from1953 to 2012.The results in-dicate that there is a stable equilibrium relationship among urbanization,population,economic growth,energy intensity and carbon emission.Urbanization has a significantly positive influence on carbon emission,but is not the main reason.The environment Kuznets Curve relationship between urbanization and carbon emission is not obvious.Urbanization can restrain the influence on carbon emission in long-term,but increase carbon emission in short-term.Finally,the paper takes cor-responding measures.