湖南工业大学学报（社会科学版）
湖南工業大學學報（社會科學版）
호남공업대학학보（사회과학판）
JOURNAL OF HUNAN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY(SOCIAL SCIENCE EDITION)
2014年
4期
1-9
,共9页
服务业%能源消费%碳排放%关联分析%脱钩指标法
服務業%能源消費%碳排放%關聯分析%脫鉤指標法
복무업%능원소비%탄배방%관련분석%탈구지표법
service industry%energy consumption%carbon emission%relational analysis%decoupling indicator method
在分析1991-2011年间中国服务业能耗与碳排放的结构特征和总体趋势的基础上，运用 OECD 脱钩指标法和Tapio 脱钩指标法，阐述了服务业 GDP、能耗与碳排放之间的互动关系和关联效应。结果表明：服务业 GDP、能耗和碳排放量整体上呈逐年增长之势；能耗强度与碳排放强度的变化具有很强的一致性和同步性，都呈下降之势；煤炭类消费的比重大致呈递减之势，而天然气、热力和电力消费的数量和比重却呈逐年增长趋势；煤炭、石油等传统高碳能源比重均占80％以上；历年 OECD 脱钩因子均呈现出绝对脱钩的状态，并表现为波动式上升之势；历年 Tapio 脱钩弹性指数整体上也均呈波动式上升之势。基于以上结论，提出了服务业节能减碳的政策建议。
在分析1991-2011年間中國服務業能耗與碳排放的結構特徵和總體趨勢的基礎上，運用 OECD 脫鉤指標法和Tapio 脫鉤指標法，闡述瞭服務業 GDP、能耗與碳排放之間的互動關繫和關聯效應。結果錶明：服務業 GDP、能耗和碳排放量整體上呈逐年增長之勢；能耗彊度與碳排放彊度的變化具有很彊的一緻性和同步性，都呈下降之勢；煤炭類消費的比重大緻呈遞減之勢，而天然氣、熱力和電力消費的數量和比重卻呈逐年增長趨勢；煤炭、石油等傳統高碳能源比重均佔80％以上；歷年 OECD 脫鉤因子均呈現齣絕對脫鉤的狀態，併錶現為波動式上升之勢；歷年 Tapio 脫鉤彈性指數整體上也均呈波動式上升之勢。基于以上結論，提齣瞭服務業節能減碳的政策建議。
재분석1991-2011년간중국복무업능모여탄배방적결구특정화총체추세적기출상，운용 OECD 탈구지표법화Tapio 탈구지표법，천술료복무업 GDP、능모여탄배방지간적호동관계화관련효응。결과표명：복무업 GDP、능모화탄배방량정체상정축년증장지세；능모강도여탄배방강도적변화구유흔강적일치성화동보성，도정하강지세；매탄류소비적비중대치정체감지세，이천연기、열력화전력소비적수량화비중각정축년증장추세；매탄、석유등전통고탄능원비중균점80％이상；력년 OECD 탈구인자균정현출절대탈구적상태，병표현위파동식상승지세；력년 Tapio 탈구탄성지수정체상야균정파동식상승지세。기우이상결론，제출료복무업절능감탄적정책건의。
On the basis of structural characteristics and general tendency analysis on energy consumption and car-bon emission about Chinese service industry during 1991-2011,the methods of OECD and Tapio decoupling indi-cator were applied,the interactive relations and associated effects were described among GDP,energy consumption and carbon emission in service industry.Results indicates as follows:as a whole,GDP,energy consumption and carbon emission were yearly growth of potential;The change of energy intensity and carbon intensity about service industry had strong consistency and synchronization,and they were declined of potential;The consumption propor-tion of coal was roughly decreasing of potential,but the consumption proportion and total amount of natural gas, thermal and power were yearly growth trend;traditional high carbon energy proportions,such as coal and oil were accounted for 80% above;OECD decoupling factor were rendering out absolute decoupling state,and performed for fluctuations type rose of potential every year;Tapio decoupling elasticity indicators showed volatility on the overall rising trend.Based on the above conclusions,some policy recommendations of energy saving and carbon reduction about service industry were put forward.
