CAJ | 학술논문

选取地层岩性、地质构造、地下水、地貌和人类活动5个区域地裂缝灾害影响因素，采用确定性系数（ CF ）分析方法，建立了熵指数（ IOE）模型和Logistic回归模型，运用GIS技术构建地裂缝灾害评价体系，研究在GIS环境下地裂缝灾害危险等级划分方法，并对苏锡常地区地裂缝灾害进行评价。采用严重、较严重、一般和不严重4种等级划分灾害等级，其中熵指数模型评价结果中各等级占总灾害面积比分别为：10．41％、13．21％、38．11％、38．27％，准确度为92％。 Logistic 回归模型评价结果为：7．48％、13．33％、34．85％、44．34％，准确度为84％。两种模型评价的灾害结果说明，熵指数模型和Logistic回归模型均可用作地裂缝灾害评价模型，通过算例证明，熵指数模型结果准确可靠。
선취지층암성、지질구조、지하수、지모화인류활동5개구역지렬봉재해영향인소，채용학정성계수（ CF ）분석방법，건립료적지수（ IOE）모형화Logistic회귀모형，운용GIS기술구건지렬봉재해평개체계，연구재GIS배경하지렬봉재해위험등급화분방법，병대소석상지구지렬봉재해진행평개。채용엄중、교엄중、일반화불엄중4충등급화분재해등급，기중적지수모형평개결과중각등급점총재해면적비분별위：10．41％、13．21％、38．11％、38．27％，준학도위92％。 Logistic 회귀모형평개결과위：7．48％、13．33％、34．85％、44．34％，준학도위84％。량충모형평개적재해결과설명，적지수모형화Logistic회귀모형균가용작지렬봉재해평개모형，통과산예증명，적지수모형결과준학가고。
This paper selects lithology,geological structure,groundwater,geomorphology and human engi-neering activities as the factors in ground fissure disasters .Using bivariate ( certainty factor ) method ,the entro-py index ( IOE) model and Logistic regression model are established .Then ArcGIS is used to build the evalua-tion system of ground fissure disasters .With the ground fissure hazard classification ,the disaster level figure in GIS environment drawn .Taking Suzhou ,Wuxi and Changzhou as the study cases the regional ground fissure as-sessment is carried out .Ground fissure disasters are divided into 4 grades of serious ,more serious ,general and not severe and the result of the entropy index of model evaluation shows the 4 grades occupy 10.41%,13.21%, 38.11%and 38.27%of the total disaster area ,respectively while the logistic regression model evaluation result shows 7.48%,13.33%,34.85%and 44.34%respectively.The accuracies of the two models are 92%and 84%, respectively .The results of the two models are similar or in line with the actual .So both the entropy index model and the logistic regression model can be used to evaluate ground fissure disasters .But in contrast with actual data,the results of the entropy index model are more accurate .