CAJ | 학술논문

从区域物流的物流供给与物流需求等指标入手，构建了广西北部湾区域物流的数据包络分析与系统动力学的评价与改进模型，用此模型分析评价北部湾区域物流的发展现状并对未来发展趋势进行了预测与分析。根据DEA分析出的松弛变量对投入要素进行多次的试验分析，结果表明在实际操作中不一定能够达到理想的相对有效状态，但适当地改变投入要素的输入比例可以达到改善原有问题的目的。将原始物流供需比与理想供需比对比分析，结果表明理想的物流供需比例可以作为北部湾未来物流业的发展参考依据。
종구역물류적물류공급여물류수구등지표입수，구건료엄서북부만구역물류적수거포락분석여계통동역학적평개여개진모형，용차모형분석평개북부만구역물류적발전현상병대미래발전추세진행료예측여분석。근거DEA분석출적송이변량대투입요소진행다차적시험분석，결과표명재실제조작중불일정능구체도이상적상대유효상태，단괄당지개변투입요소적수입비례가이체도개선원유문제적목적。장원시물류공수비여이상공수비대비분석，결과표명이상적물류공수비례가이작위북부만미래물류업적발전삼고의거。
The objective of this paper is to analyze and evaluate the current development status and make a prediction of further development for regional logistics in Beibu Gulf of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.A complex model is established by combining data envelopment analysis and system dynamics ( SD) , with the regional logistics supply and demand index system in focus .The slack variables are essen-tial to the experiment for the change of DEA input factors , which shows that the ideal efficiency value might not be achieved in the real process .However , the proportion of input index can be adjusted to ac-commodate the valid target .Besides , the rate of logistic supply and demand is introduced to demonstrate the ideal development .The rate is produced by simulated value in the model SD , which can be deemed as a benchmark for logistic development of Beibu Gulf in the future .