人民黄河
人民黃河
인민황하
Yellow River
2014年
9期
51-53
,共3页
径流量%变化特征%气候变化%人类活动%贡献率%鄂尔多斯市
徑流量%變化特徵%氣候變化%人類活動%貢獻率%鄂爾多斯市
경류량%변화특정%기후변화%인류활동%공헌솔%악이다사시
runoff%change characteristics%climate change%human activity%contribution rate%Ordos City
采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验及突变诊断方法分析了鄂尔多斯市径流变化情况，并探讨了降水、气温、人类活动等环境因素变化对径流变化的影响。结果表明：近50多a来，鄂尔多斯市径流呈显著减小趋势，且在1993年左右发生明显突变；气候变化对径流减少的贡献率约为29％，其中降水减少占19％、气温升高占10％；人类活动对径流减少的贡献率约为71％，其中水土保持建设、水利工程建设、地下水开采分别占18％、10％和22％。
採用Mann-Kendall趨勢檢驗及突變診斷方法分析瞭鄂爾多斯市徑流變化情況，併探討瞭降水、氣溫、人類活動等環境因素變化對徑流變化的影響。結果錶明：近50多a來，鄂爾多斯市徑流呈顯著減小趨勢，且在1993年左右髮生明顯突變；氣候變化對徑流減少的貢獻率約為29％，其中降水減少佔19％、氣溫升高佔10％；人類活動對徑流減少的貢獻率約為71％，其中水土保持建設、水利工程建設、地下水開採分彆佔18％、10％和22％。
채용Mann-Kendall추세검험급돌변진단방법분석료악이다사시경류변화정황，병탐토료강수、기온、인류활동등배경인소변화대경류변화적영향。결과표명：근50다a래，악이다사시경류정현저감소추세，차재1993년좌우발생명현돌변；기후변화대경류감소적공헌솔약위29％，기중강수감소점19％、기온승고점10％；인류활동대경류감소적공헌솔약위71％，기중수토보지건설、수리공정건설、지하수개채분별점18％、10％화22％。
The Mann-Kendall trend test and mutation diagnosis method were applied to analyze the change trend and mutation characteristic of run-off in Ordos. The contribution of climate change (precipitation and temperature change)and human activities on runoff change were assessed quan-titatively. The results show that the runoff is decreasing significantly in the recent 50 years,and has mutation obviously around 1993. The contribu-tion rate of climate change on runoff decrease is about 29%,including 19% of precipitation decrease and 10% of temperature rise. The contribu-tion rate of human activities on runoff decrease is about 71%,in which the soil and water conservation construction,water conservancy project con-struction and groundwater exploitation account for 18%,10% and 22% respectively.
