CAJ | 학술논문

基于洪山泉流量日益衰减的现状，以该泉域2001-2013年的泉流量、开采量等系列资料为基础，分析了泉域水均衡状况，得出其流量衰减的主要原因为不断增加的岩溶水开采和煤矿矿井排水。利用灰色综合关联度方法，对不同时滞影响下的降水量与还原泉流量进行灰色关联分析，确定降水量对还原泉流量影响的滞后时间为8a。将多元回归模型计算的有效降水量作为还原泉流量的相关序列，建立了灰色GM（1，2）预测模型，并进行了残差修正。利用修正后的模型，对2014-2017年不同降水保证率下的还原泉流量进行了预测。结果表明：2015年当降水保证率为95％时，洪山泉将发生断流。
기우홍산천류량일익쇠감적현상，이해천역2001-2013년적천류량、개채량등계렬자료위기출，분석료천역수균형상황，득출기류량쇠감적주요원인위불단증가적암용수개채화매광광정배수。이용회색종합관련도방법，대불동시체영향하적강수량여환원천류량진행회색관련분석，학정강수량대환원천류량영향적체후시간위8a。장다원회귀모형계산적유효강수량작위환원천류량적상관서렬，건립료회색GM（1，2）예측모형，병진행료잔차수정。이용수정후적모형，대2014-2017년불동강수보증솔하적환원천류량진행료예측。결과표명：2015년당강수보증솔위95％시，홍산천장발생단류。
Based on the current situation of increasing attenuation of Hongshan spring discharge,the water balance model was established with the data series of spring discharge and exploitation in Hongshan spring area from 2001 to 2013. The ever-increasing of karst water exploitation and coal mine drainage were the main reasons of the attenuation of spring discharge. Using the method of comprehensive correlative degree of gray,the gray correlation analysis of restoring discharge and rainfall with different time-lag was proceeded to define that the hysteresis period of rainfall on spring discharge was 8 years. The effective rainfall,calculated by the multiple regression model,was the correlation sequences of restoring discharge. And then,the GM (1,2)prediction model was established to predict with the residual correction. Using the period residual modification of GM (1,2) model,the restore spring discharge was predicted with the different guaranteed rate of rainfall from 2014 to 2017. The results show that Hongshan spring will dry up in 2015 with rainfall guaranteed rate of 95%. The research provides a scientific reference for the effective protection of the Hongs-han spring and the reasonable development of karst water resources.