CAJ | 학술논문

本文面向城市中需要在给定期限内到达终点的出行者，针对最短耗时公交换乘问题，利用基于风险分担的鲁棒优化方法进行了建模和求解。公交行车时间和发车间隔时间是不确定的，本文将其建模为区间数，并基于风险分担的思想给出了这些不确定参数的集合描述，该集合可以通过一个代表出行者保守程度的参数进行灵活调整，在此基础上提出了城市公交换乘最短耗时鲁棒优化模型，给出了多项式时间精确算法。通过对一个算例的求解和仿真实验，展示了该模型求解结果（相对于确定性模型的求解结果）具有更小的迟到概率；并通过分析讨论，总结出换乘更少，运行更稳定的换乘方案更倾向于成为鲁棒最优换乘方案。
본문면향성시중수요재급정기한내도체종점적출행자，침대최단모시공교환승문제，이용기우풍험분담적로봉우화방법진행료건모화구해。공교행차시간화발차간격시간시불학정적，본문장기건모위구간수，병기우풍험분담적사상급출료저사불학정삼수적집합묘술，해집합가이통과일개대표출행자보수정도적삼수진행령활조정，재차기출상제출료성시공교환승최단모시로봉우화모형，급출료다항식시간정학산법。통과대일개산례적구해화방진실험，전시료해모형구해결과（상대우학정성모형적구해결과）구유경소적지도개솔；병통과분석토론，총결출환승경소，운행경은정적환승방안경경향우성위로봉최우환승방안。
This paper addresses the least-time itinerary planning problem for the urban public-transport trav-elers, especially those with deadlines imposed at their destinations. A risk-pooling-based robust model is used to solve the problem. Headway and travel time of each bus are uncertain, which are given in intervals in this paper. Based on the risk pooling concept, the set of combined uncertain travel times and headways are designated. This set could be adjusted flexibly by a parameter, which represents the conservativeness of each traveler. Subsequently, a robust model for the problem is proposed, as well as an exact polynomial time algo-rithm. Through an example and the associated simulation, the paper demonstrates that the solution of this model (compared with the solution of the deterministic model) is less likely to break the deadline. It is also concluded that an itinerary is more inclined to be a robust optimal solution with less transfer times or by more reliable bus lines.