CAJ | 학술논문

为评价随机动态道路网络系统在ATIS环境下的行程时间可靠性，将出行者群体划分为装载和未装载信息接收设备两类，并假设他们均遵循随机动态用户最优原则(SDUO)进行动态路径选择，运用动态均衡理论建立了基于路径的混合SDUO不动点模型，并证明该模型至少存在一个不动点。使用离散随机变量序列描述需求的随机动态变化，基于Monte Carlo模拟和对角化相继平均算法(MSA)，提出了ATIS环境下随机动态路网的行程时间可靠性评价方法。随后通过算例验证了可靠性评价方法的可行性。数值结果表明：OD行程时间可靠性随出发时段动态变化，且在动态情形下，扩大ATIS市场占有率并不能进一步提高可靠性，反而可能会导致可靠性下降。
위평개수궤동태도로망락계통재ATIS배경하적행정시간가고성，장출행자군체화분위장재화미장재신식접수설비량류，병가설타문균준순수궤동태용호최우원칙(SDUO)진행동태로경선택，운용동태균형이론건립료기우로경적혼합SDUO불동점모형，병증명해모형지소존재일개불동점。사용리산수궤변량서렬묘술수구적수궤동태변화，기우Monte Carlo모의화대각화상계평균산법(MSA)，제출료ATIS배경하수궤동태로망적행정시간가고성평개방법。수후통과산례험증료가고성평개방법적가행성。수치결과표명：OD행정시간가고성수출발시단동태변화，차재동태정형하，확대ATIS시장점유솔병불능진일보제고가고성，반이가능회도치가고성하강。
To evaluate the travel time reliability of stochastic dynamic network with ATIS, this study classi-fies travelers into two groups:with and without the information receiving devise. Both of them are assumed to follow the stochastic dynamic user optimal (SDUO) principle to dynamically choose routes. A route-based mixed SDUO fixed point model is developed according to the dynamic equilibrium theory, which has been proved to have at least one fixed point. The stochastic dynamic demand is described as a discrete random variable sequence. Then, a travel time reliability evaluation procedure is proposed based on the Monte Carlo simulation and diagonalized method of successive average (MSA) for stochastic dynamic road network with ATIS. Then, the feasibility of the proposed approach is tested in an example network. The results show that OD travel time reliability varies as departure time interval changes, and under this dynamic case, the increas-ing ATIS market penetration rate degrades travel time reliability instead of improving reliability.