CAJ | 학술논문

利用Copula理论，选取天津地区5个台站的地磁资料，分析计算了1986-2013年的地磁Z值数据，经过在多种模型中比较Kendall与Spearman系数，得出最优模型，并分析不同周期下Kendall系数的时序曲线．计算结果表明，在MS≥5．0地震前，Kendall 系数的时序曲线处于紊乱期，震后其对应性迅速转好，一致性明显．这是由于地震应力积累导致地下电性结构发生变化，而震后应力得到释放，磁场回归常态造成的．尤为明显的是2006年文安MS5．1地震前，青光台（距震中最近）Kendall系数异于其它台站出现大幅下滑；而2012年唐山MS 4．8地震前，宁河台（距震中最近）Kendall系数异于其它台站上升幅度不大．
이용Copula이론，선취천진지구5개태참적지자자료，분석계산료1986-2013년적지자Z치수거，경과재다충모형중비교Kendall여Spearman계수，득출최우모형，병분석불동주기하Kendall계수적시서곡선．계산결과표명，재MS≥5．0지진전，Kendall 계수적시서곡선처우문란기，진후기대응성신속전호，일치성명현．저시유우지진응력적루도치지하전성결구발생변화，이진후응력득도석방，자장회귀상태조성적．우위명현적시2006년문안MS5．1지진전，청광태（거진중최근）Kendall계수이우기타태참출현대폭하활；이2012년당산MS 4．8지진전，저하태（거진중최근）Kendall계수이우기타태참상승폭도불대．
In this paper,we selected geomagnetic data of five seismographic sta-tions in Tianjin,analyzed and calculated geomagnetic Z component data from 1986 to 2013 based on Copula theory. After comparison of Kendall and Spearman coefficients in a variety of models,the optimal model was got,and then Kendall coefficient timing curves were analyzed in different cycles.The calculated results show that Kendall coefficient timing curve is in the disordered phase before the MS≥5 .0 earthquake,and its consistency turns better rapidly after the earthquake.That is because the accumulated seismic stress causes the underground electrical structure to change,and the stress is released after the earthquake,magnetic field data returns to normal.It is more predominant that Kendall coefficient of the Qingguang seismographic station (it has the smallest distance from the epicenter)dropped sharply before the Wen’an MS5.1 earth-quake in 2006 ,which is different from that of other stations;while Kendall co-efficient of the Ninghe seismographic station (it has the smallest distance from the epicenter)rose marginally before the Tangshan MS4.8 earthquake in 2012.