科技致富向导
科技緻富嚮導
과기치부향도
KEJI ZHIFU XIANGDAO
2014年
18期
177-178
,共2页
能源消费%能源需求%灰色预测%GM(1,1)
能源消費%能源需求%灰色預測%GM(1,1)
능원소비%능원수구%회색예측%GM(1,1)
Energy consumption%Energy demand%Gray system forecast%GM(1,1)
以1985~2012年中国能源消费总量为原始数据,构建了中国能源消费GM (1,1)预测模型。研究表明,中国能源消费呈准指数增长规律，GM (1,1)预测模型对20年能源消费量的拟合精度较高，适用于作中长期经济预测。预计“十二五”期间中国能源消费将以6.27%的速度增长，2020年能源消费量达到57.7086亿t标准煤。
以1985~2012年中國能源消費總量為原始數據,構建瞭中國能源消費GM (1,1)預測模型。研究錶明,中國能源消費呈準指數增長規律，GM (1,1)預測模型對20年能源消費量的擬閤精度較高，適用于作中長期經濟預測。預計“十二五”期間中國能源消費將以6.27%的速度增長，2020年能源消費量達到57.7086億t標準煤。
이1985~2012년중국능원소비총량위원시수거,구건료중국능원소비GM (1,1)예측모형。연구표명,중국능원소비정준지수증장규률，GM (1,1)예측모형대20년능원소비량적의합정도교고，괄용우작중장기경제예측。예계“십이오”기간중국능원소비장이6.27%적속도증장，2020년능원소비량체도57.7086억t표준매。
On the basis of the gross energy consumption in China from 1985 to 2012, the grey forecast model for Chinese energy consumption is constructed. It is indicated that the increase of China energy consumption answered for exponential curve. According to the forecast model of GM (1, 1), the fit precision of the past 20 years energy consumption to exponential function is higher, which shows the model is suitable for medium or long term economic forecast. It is predicted that the energy consumption of China will grow in the rate of about 6.20%per year from 2013 to 2020, and the energy consumption in 2020 will be an equivalent of 5,770,860,000 ton standard coal.
