CAJ | 학술논문

提出基于层次分析法和构造-插值方法的电网潜在安全风险危害后果量化方法，以及基于条件概率的危害可能性量化评估方法，实现了对电网安全风险及其不确定性的量化评估。基于评估结果，对风险进行逐个要素的针对性预控，将电网运行安全管理工作的核心从事故后电网恢复转变为事故前安全风险预控，提高了电网应对各种内外部威胁的能力。在南方电网应用该方法建立了以风险防控为核心的运行机制，取得了良好的实际效果，在电网运行的安全性与经济性之间得到较好的平衡。
제출기우층차분석법화구조-삽치방법적전망잠재안전풍험위해후과양화방법，이급기우조건개솔적위해가능성양화평고방법，실현료대전망안전풍험급기불학정성적양화평고。기우평고결과，대풍험진행축개요소적침대성예공，장전망운행안전관리공작적핵심종사고후전망회복전변위사고전안전풍험예공，제고료전망응대각충내외부위협적능력。재남방전망응용해방법건립료이풍험방공위핵심적운행궤제，취득료량호적실제효과，재전망운행적안전성여경제성지간득도교호적평형。
A quantitive evaluation method for power grid security risk is proposed in this paper. The evaluation method cosists of eval-uation of potential hazard consequence and evaluaiton of hazard probability. The former is based on analytic hierarchy porcess(AHP) and Construction-Interpolation method and the latter is based on conditional probability analysis. According to the evaluation, certain preventive control measures are performed against each risk factor. This changes the core of the power grid safety risk management from the post-fault restoration to the pre-fault prevention, and thus enhances the ability of the power grid to stand against various risks. With the proposed method, an operation mechanism of pre-fault prevention against the potential risk is established in China Southern Power Grid. Through the application of this operation mechanism, a better balance between the safety and economy of the grid opera-tion is achieved.