CAJ | 학술논문

为了快速准确地掌握青藏高原草地生产力/产草量及草畜平衡情况，促进藏区草地资源可持续利用，实现青藏高原生态与生产协调发展，有必要对青藏高原不同行政区域天然草地及补饲后的载畜能力和草畜平衡问题开展研究。该研究首先结合MODIS（moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer）的归一化植被指数（normalized difference vegetation index，NDVI）数据、青藏高原草地类型图、气象数据、土壤质地数据等数据，利用改进的CASA（carnegie-ames-stanford-approach）模型，对青藏高原草地产草量进行了估算，并分析了青藏高原草地天然产草量的空间分布情况。然后利用草谷比法估算了青藏高原饲用秸秆资源量及空间分布情况，计算得出各县市可利用的秸秆资源的载畜量情况。最后根据草地产草量、秸秆资源载畜量和实际载畜量，利用草畜平衡模型，模拟得出各县市的超载过牧情况。结果表明：2010年，青藏高原年产草量区域差异十分明显，西藏年产草量最大为2642.89万t，青海藏区次之，为2307.60万t；云南藏区最低，为37.36万t。青藏高原天然草地总载畜量为8363.04万只（羊单位，以下同），其中，青海省藏区为2889.10万只，西藏为2789.35万只，四川藏区为1854.10万只，甘肃藏区为796.42万只，云南藏区为34.09万只。青藏高原饲用秸秆资源量为372.16万t，其中青海藏区和西藏的饲用秸秆资源总量占整个藏区的74.77%；其他3个省份的可饲用秸秆总量比例仅占25.23%。青藏高原饲用秸秆资源可饲养牲畜293.53万只，其中青海省藏区为172.48万只，西藏为46.80万只，四川藏区为31.94万只，甘肃藏区为19.69万只，云南藏区为22.65万只。青藏高原各县市超载过牧十分突出。在未补饲情况下，超载率超过5倍的县市占7.69%，2～5倍的占13.46%，1～2倍的占28.84%，超载率小于1倍的占38.82%，未超载的仅占11.19%。通过补饲秸秆资源，未超载过牧的县市比例未发生变化，但各县市的超载过牧情况有所改善。超载率超过5倍的县市比例下降了3.2个百分点，2～5倍的下降了4.49个百分点，1～2倍的增加了5.49个百分点，超载率小于1倍的增加了2.2个百分点。因此，今后青藏高原需根据草地资源及饲用秸秆资源的承载能力严格控制牛羊的养殖数量，实现生态环境和畜牧业的可持续发展。為瞭快速準確地掌握青藏高原草地生產力/產草量及草畜平衡情況，促進藏區草地資源可持續利用，實現青藏高原生態與生產協調髮展，有必要對青藏高原不同行政區域天然草地及補飼後的載畜能力和草畜平衡問題開展研究。該研究首先結閤MODIS（moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer）的歸一化植被指數（normalized difference vegetation index，NDVI）數據、青藏高原草地類型圖、氣象數據、土壤質地數據等數據，利用改進的CASA（carnegie-ames-stanford-approach）模型，對青藏高原草地產草量進行瞭估算，併分析瞭青藏高原草地天然產草量的空間分佈情況。然後利用草穀比法估算瞭青藏高原飼用秸稈資源量及空間分佈情況，計算得齣各縣市可利用的秸稈資源的載畜量情況。最後根據草地產草量、秸稈資源載畜量和實際載畜量，利用草畜平衡模型，模擬得齣各縣市的超載過牧情況。結果錶明：2010年，青藏高原年產草量區域差異十分明顯，西藏年產草量最大為2642.89萬t，青海藏區次之，為2307.60萬t；雲南藏區最低，為37.36萬t。青藏高原天然草地總載畜量為8363.04萬隻（羊單位，以下同），其中，青海省藏區為2889.10萬隻，西藏為2789.35萬隻，四川藏區為1854.10萬隻，甘肅藏區為796.42萬隻，雲南藏區為34.09萬隻。青藏高原飼用秸稈資源量為372.16萬t，其中青海藏區和西藏的飼用秸稈資源總量佔整箇藏區的74.77%；其他3箇省份的可飼用秸稈總量比例僅佔25.23%。青藏高原飼用秸稈資源可飼養牲畜293.53萬隻，其中青海省藏區為172.48萬隻，西藏為46.80萬隻，四川藏區為31.94萬隻，甘肅藏區為19.69萬隻，雲南藏區為22.65萬隻。青藏高原各縣市超載過牧十分突齣。在未補飼情況下，超載率超過5倍的縣市佔7.69%，2～5倍的佔13.46%，1～2倍的佔28.84%，超載率小于1倍的佔38.82%，未超載的僅佔11.19%。通過補飼秸稈資源，未超載過牧的縣市比例未髮生變化，但各縣市的超載過牧情況有所改善。超載率超過5倍的縣市比例下降瞭3.2箇百分點，2～5倍的下降瞭4.49箇百分點，1～2倍的增加瞭5.49箇百分點，超載率小于1倍的增加瞭2.2箇百分點。因此，今後青藏高原需根據草地資源及飼用秸稈資源的承載能力嚴格控製牛羊的養殖數量，實現生態環境和畜牧業的可持續髮展。
위료쾌속준학지장악청장고원초지생산력/산초량급초축평형정황，촉진장구초지자원가지속이용，실현청장고원생태여생산협조발전，유필요대청장고원불동행정구역천연초지급보사후적재축능력화초축평형문제개전연구。해연구수선결합MODIS（moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer）적귀일화식피지수（normalized difference vegetation index，NDVI）수거、청장고원초지류형도、기상수거、토양질지수거등수거，이용개진적CASA（carnegie-ames-stanford-approach）모형，대청장고원초지산초량진행료고산，병분석료청장고원초지천연산초량적공간분포정황。연후이용초곡비법고산료청장고원사용갈간자원량급공간분포정황，계산득출각현시가이용적갈간자원적재축량정황。최후근거초지산초량、갈간자원재축량화실제재축량，이용초축평형모형，모의득출각현시적초재과목정황。결과표명：2010년，청장고원년산초량구역차이십분명현，서장년산초량최대위2642.89만t，청해장구차지，위2307.60만t；운남장구최저，위37.36만t。청장고원천연초지총재축량위8363.04만지（양단위，이하동），기중，청해성장구위2889.10만지，서장위2789.35만지，사천장구위1854.10만지，감숙장구위796.42만지，운남장구위34.09만지。청장고원사용갈간자원량위372.16만t，기중청해장구화서장적사용갈간자원총량점정개장구적74.77%；기타3개성빈적가사용갈간총량비례부점25.23%。청장고원사용갈간자원가사양생축293.53만지，기중청해성장구위172.48만지，서장위46.80만지，사천장구위31.94만지，감숙장구위19.69만지，운남장구위22.65만지。청장고원각현시초재과목십분돌출。재미보사정황하，초재솔초과5배적현시점7.69%，2～5배적점13.46%，1～2배적점28.84%，초재솔소우1배적점38.82%，미초재적부점11.19%。통과보사갈간자원，미초재과목적현시비례미발생변화，단각현시적초재과목정황유소개선。초재솔초과5배적현시비례하강료3.2개백분점，2～5배적하강료4.49개백분점，1～2배적증가료5.49개백분점，초재솔소우1배적증가료2.2개백분점。인차，금후청장고원수근거초지자원급사용갈간자원적승재능력엄격공제우양적양식수량，실현생태배경화축목업적가지속발전。
In order to quickly and accurately know grassland productivity and the balance between the actual livestock and carrying capacity of the grassland, to promote the rational use of grassland and ensure the sustainable development of ecological environment and animal husbandry on the Tibetan Plateau, it is necessary to estimate the stock capacity of natural grassland and grassland after supplementing feed, as well as understand grassland balance situation supplementing feed before and after among different administrative regions in the Tibetan Plateau. The study estimated the grass yield on the Tibetan Plateau and analyzed the yield’s spatial distribution of natural grassland using an improved model of CASA combined with the data of NDVI from MODIS, grassland type maps, meteorological data, soil texture on the Tibetan Plateau. The paper adopt the method of straw-to-grain ratio to estimate the volume of straw forage among different administrative regions in the Tibetan Plateau and then to calculate the carrying capacity of the available straw resources of each county. According to the grass yield, carrying capacity of straw resource and the real number of livestock, the paper identified the overgrazing of all counties and cities with grass build balance model. The results showed that the annual grass yield of different regions in the Tibetan Plateau varied a lot in 2010, and the maximum was in Tibet with the largest grass yield of 26 428 890 tons, followed by Qinghai Province with the yield of 23.08 million tons, and Yunnan was the lowest, only 373 600 tons. The total livestock carrying capacity of natural grassland in the Tibetan Plateau was 83 630 365 (standard sheep unit, the same below), in which, the livestock carrying capacities of Qinghai, Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu and Yunnan were 28 890 963, 27 893 522, 18 540 968, 7 964 236 and 340 946, respectively. The overgrazing among each county and city in the Tibetan Plateau was very common. Without adding feed by straw forage, the quantities of the county and city with the overgrazing rate more than 5 times, between 2 and 5 times, less than 1 time accounted for 7.69%, 28.84% and 38.82% of total county and city, respectively. And the counties in which the actual number of livestock did not exceed the local maximum carrying capacity only accounted for 11.19%. In case of adding straw forage, the proportion of the counties without overgrazing remained the same, however the situation of overgrazing county improved. The proportions of the county with overgrazing rates more than 5 times, between 2 and 5 times, between 1 and 2 times decreased by 3.2%, 4.49%, 5.49%, respectively, and the proportion of the county with overgrazing rate less than 1 time increased by 2.2%. Therefore, it is necessary to strictly control the volume of cattle and sheep to match the carrying capacity of natural grassland and feeding straw resources, and to achieve sustainable development of ecological environment and animal husbandry.