CAJ | 학술논문

通过祁连山大野口流域18 a的地面气象观测,采用参数特征值算法、相关系数分析、回归分析和无偏估计等方法,研究了祁连山大野口流域降水与其他气象因子的年际变化特征和月际变化的关系.结果表明：祁连山大野口流域18 a平均降水量、气温、相对湿度、气压、风速、日照时数、水面蒸发分别为374.06 mm、1.62℃、60.91%、745.27 hPa、2.52 m/s、1633.14 h、995.64 mm,其年际变化幅度从大到小依次为气温、降水、日照时数、水面蒸发、风速、相对湿度和气压.降水与其他气象因子相关性从强到弱依次为气温、水面蒸发、日照时数、风速、相对湿度、气压.气温和水面蒸发与降水变化,属于强相关；气压年际变化不大,解释降水不明显,属于极弱相关.综合R2检验、F检验、t检验结果,降水与其他气象因子回归模型除10月份以外,其他月份在95%置信度区间上为可信.
통과기련산대야구류역18 a적지면기상관측,채용삼수특정치산법、상관계수분석、회귀분석화무편고계등방법,연구료기련산대야구류역강수여기타기상인자적년제변화특정화월제변화적관계.결과표명：기련산대야구류역18 a평균강수량、기온、상대습도、기압、풍속、일조시수、수면증발분별위374.06 mm、1.62℃、60.91%、745.27 hPa、2.52 m/s、1633.14 h、995.64 mm,기년제변화폭도종대도소의차위기온、강수、일조시수、수면증발、풍속、상대습도화기압.강수여기타기상인자상관성종강도약의차위기온、수면증발、일조시수、풍속、상대습도、기압.기온화수면증발여강수변화,속우강상관；기압년제변화불대,해석강수불명현,속우겁약상관.종합R2검험、F검험、t검험결과,강수여기타기상인자회귀모형제10월빈이외,기타월빈재95%치신도구간상위가신.
Based ground meteorological observation for 1 8 years in Dayekou basin of Qilian Mountains, the parameters algorithm of observed data,correlation analysis,regression analysis and unbiased estimate a-nalysis were used to study the characteristics between precipitation and other meteorological factors on in-terannual variations and inter-monthly variation.The results show that the 1 8 years average value of pre-cipitation,air temperature,relative humidity,air pressure,wind speed,sunshine time,evaporation from wa-ter surface was 374.06 mm,1.62 ℃,respectively,60.91%,745.27 hPa,2.52 m/s,1 633.14 h,995.64 mm, respectively,in Dayekou basin of Qilian Mountains,and the interannual variation of these indexes decreased with the order of temperature,precipitation,sunshine time,surface evaporation,wind speed,relative humid-ity and air pressure.The correlation of precipitation and meteorological factors from strong to weak was temperature,water surface evaporation,sunshine time,wind speed,relative humidity,air pressure.Temper-ature and surface evaporation could well explain the precipitation change,which were in strong correlation with precipitation.Interannual variation of air pressure was not obviously,which showed weak correlation with precipitation.Comprehensive analysis results of R2 test,F test and t test showed that the regression model of precipitation index and meteorological factors was credible in the 9 5% confidence interval in all months except October.The timescale of the study on functional relationship of precipitation and meteoro-logical factors were interannual variations and inter-monthly variation.