CAJ | 학술논문

文章利用广东省1992~2012的年度数据对影响广东省民营企业对外贸易转型升级的因素进行实证检验。首先使用主成分分析法从选取的多个影响变量中提取出具有代表性的主要因素，以消除多个变量间存在的多重共线性，再利用计量回归模型对影响广东省民营企业对外贸易的因素进行实证检验。研究结果显示，技术进步、国内产业结构和制度因素有显著的正向作用；而外商直接投资则体现为显著的负向作用，要素禀赋条件和汇率因素作用不明显。最后针对促进广东省民营企业对外贸易转型升级提出相应的政策建议。
문장이용광동성1992~2012적년도수거대영향광동성민영기업대외무역전형승급적인소진행실증검험。수선사용주성분분석법종선취적다개영향변량중제취출구유대표성적주요인소，이소제다개변량간존재적다중공선성，재이용계량회귀모형대영향광동성민영기업대외무역적인소진행실증검험。연구결과현시，기술진보、국내산업결구화제도인소유현저적정향작용；이외상직접투자칙체현위현저적부향작용，요소품부조건화회솔인소작용불명현。최후침대촉진광동성민영기업대외무역전형승급제출상응적정책건의。
By using the data from 1992 to 2012, this paper makes an empirical study of the influencing factors in trans-forming and upgrading the private enterprises’ foreign trade in Guangdong. First, it extracts some typical factors from mul-tiple variables by using principal component regression to eliminate the multicollinearity. Then, it reuses a regression with the components derived before. The result demonstrates that technological development, domestic industrial structure and institutional factors have significant positive effects, while real FDI has negative effect, and factor endowments and exchange rate effect are not obvious. Finally, it proposes some policy suggestions to promote transformation and upgrading of the private enterprises’ foreign trade in Guangdong.