CAJ | 학술논문

考虑到水利工程的建设管理特点，在当前清单计价模式下，如何能够准确及时地知晓工程成本的风险因素、风险等级、风险发生概率等是施工单位必须努力解决的重要问题。在充分理解物元理论与可拓工程思想的基础上，对水利工程承包方面临的主要风险进行了识别和分析，选定特征集，确定评语集、节域及经典域。利用熵权的思想，确定评价指标的权重，确定建立水利工程项目可拓风险评估模型及风险等级，并分析出最主要的风险因素。案例分析表明，南水北调工程某标段的成本风险等级为 j0=3，即风险较小，计算风险的等级变量特征值 j*=2.9。严格意义上来说，该工程的风险等级为2.9，其风险趋向接近风险等级较小的那一级，即第4级，且最重要的风险为价格风险。
고필도수리공정적건설관리특점，재당전청단계개모식하，여하능구준학급시지지효공정성본적풍험인소、풍험등급、풍험발생개솔등시시공단위필수노력해결적중요문제。재충분리해물원이론여가탁공정사상적기출상，대수리공정승포방면림적주요풍험진행료식별화분석，선정특정집，학정평어집、절역급경전역。이용적권적사상，학정평개지표적권중，학정건립수리공정항목가탁풍험평고모형급풍험등급，병분석출최주요적풍험인소。안례분석표명，남수북조공정모표단적성본풍험등급위 j0=3，즉풍험교소，계산풍험적등급변량특정치 j*=2.9。엄격의의상래설，해공정적풍험등급위2.9，기풍험추향접근풍험등급교소적나일급，즉제4급，차최중요적풍험위개격풍험。
Considering characteristics of the water conservancy project management,how to know the risk factors on cost is an important problem that the construction enterprise must try to solve under the list valuation mode. Based on extension engineering and matter-element theory, cost risk factors which the contractor faced were analyzed including risk caused by owner,fluctuations in the trading environment,the construction company,the project itself, and other risk. Then feature set, evaluation set,classical domain, and joint domain were selected. Using the idea of entropy weight,the weights of evaluation indexes were determined. An extension assessment model for construction project cost risk was set up. Case analysis shows that by using this assessment mode, the level of cost risk was j0=3 which meant that the cost risk is lower,and characteristic value of risk rank was j*=2.9. Strictly speaking,the risk rank of this project is 3 and the most important risk factor is price risk. Practice has proved that this mode has a significant effect on risk control.