CAJ | 학술논문

在全球变暖大背景下，极端灾害性天气事件频繁发生，其中以暴雨洪涝灾害表现最为明显。文章基于灾害系统理论及风险评估原理，利用基础地理数据、气象数据、社会经济数据、历史灾情数据等，分别从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性、防灾减灾能力4个评价指标，建立基于评价因子的暴雨洪涝风险评估模型，并指出区县级暴雨洪涝风险评估需要解决的重点问题包括数据空间化、气象数据的序列延长、参数的确定等。最后以暴雨洪涝多发地区福建省石狮市（县级市）为研究区，利用GIS技术生成100 m×100 m分辨率的致灾因子危险性空间分布图、孕灾环境敏感性空间分布图、承灾体易损性空间分布图、防灾减灾能力空间分布图、暴雨洪涝风险评估空间分布图。结果显示：风险最高地区主要位于湖滨街道和凤里街道；其次是祥芝镇东部和西部，灵秀镇大部份地区、蚶江镇中南部、宝盖镇中南部和锦尚镇大部分地区；风险较低的地区主要是蚶江镇北部、宝盖镇北部和永宁镇大部分地区。
재전구변난대배경하，겁단재해성천기사건빈번발생，기중이폭우홍로재해표현최위명현。문장기우재해계통이론급풍험평고원리，이용기출지리수거、기상수거、사회경제수거、역사재정수거등，분별종치재인자위험성、잉재배경민감성、승재체역손성、방재감재능력4개평개지표，건립기우평개인자적폭우홍로풍험평고모형，병지출구현급폭우홍로풍험평고수요해결적중점문제포괄수거공간화、기상수거적서렬연장、삼수적학정등。최후이폭우홍로다발지구복건성석사시（현급시）위연구구，이용GIS기술생성100 m×100 m분변솔적치재인자위험성공간분포도、잉재배경민감성공간분포도、승재체역손성공간분포도、방재감재능력공간분포도、폭우홍로풍험평고공간분포도。결과현시：풍험최고지구주요위우호빈가도화봉리가도；기차시상지진동부화서부，령수진대부빈지구、감강진중남부、보개진중남부화금상진대부분지구；풍험교저적지구주요시감강진북부、보개진북부화영저진대부분지구。
Under global warming background, extreme weather events occur frequently, with torrential rains and floors being the most dramatic. In this paper, which is based on disaster system theory and risk evaluation theory, we establish rainstorm and flood risk assessment model through the analysis of fundamental geographic data, weather data, socio-economic data, and historical disaster data, in which four indices of assessment are used respectively. The four indices of assessment are amount and intensity of rainstorm, environmental sensitivity index, vulnerable feature index and disaster resistance ability index. Furthermore, we indicate the key issues that need to be addressed in county-level rainstorm and flood risk assessments, including spatialization, extended sequence and parameter determination. The evaluation model takes account of the various influences of the precipitation, vegetation, rivers, elevation, topographic relief, population, economy, hospitals, agriculture and forestry, water conservancy and medical treatment and public health investment, etc.. We take Shishi, Jinjiang City, Fujian Province, as the study area, which is a multiple place prone to torrential rainstorm and flood. We use GIS technology to generate 100 m×100 m resolution spatial distribution map of hazard risk, hazard-inducing environment map of hazard-inducing environment sensitivity, map of vulnerability of hazard carrier, map of disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, and map of rainstorm and flood risk assessment. The results show that the highest risk areas are mainly located in Hubin and Fengli sub-district;the higher risk areas are located in the eastern and western parts of Xiangzhi town, Most of the parts of Lingxiu town, south-central parts of Hanjiang town, south-central parts of Baogai town and most of the parts of Jinshang town;the lower risk areas are mainly located in the northern parts of Hanjiang town, the northern parts of Baogai town and most of the parts of Yongning town.