南方金融
南方金融
남방금융
SOUTH CHINA FINANCE
2014年
9期
16-23
,共8页
金融改革%人口老龄化%人口红利%经济增长
金融改革%人口老齡化%人口紅利%經濟增長
금융개혁%인구노령화%인구홍리%경제증장
Financial Reform%Population Aging%Demographic Dividend%Economic Growth
目前，我国已逐步进入老龄化社会。在人口老龄化背景下，劳动力供给和储蓄将会下降，这会导致投资成本上升和养老负担加重。金融改革有助于提高要素的配置效率、打破金融抑制格局，从而起到缓解人口老龄化冲击的作用。本文实证分析了金融改革缓解人口老龄化冲击的效应。研究结果表明，金融改革指数提高1个标准差，老年人占总人口比重对经济增长的负面影响将下降15.96%，老年人占总人口比重的变化对经济增长的负面影响将减小30.13%；对于发展中国家而言，金融改革产生的效应更加突出。
目前，我國已逐步進入老齡化社會。在人口老齡化揹景下，勞動力供給和儲蓄將會下降，這會導緻投資成本上升和養老負擔加重。金融改革有助于提高要素的配置效率、打破金融抑製格跼，從而起到緩解人口老齡化遲擊的作用。本文實證分析瞭金融改革緩解人口老齡化遲擊的效應。研究結果錶明，金融改革指數提高1箇標準差，老年人佔總人口比重對經濟增長的負麵影響將下降15.96%，老年人佔總人口比重的變化對經濟增長的負麵影響將減小30.13%；對于髮展中國傢而言，金融改革產生的效應更加突齣。
목전，아국이축보진입노령화사회。재인구노령화배경하，노동력공급화저축장회하강，저회도치투자성본상승화양로부담가중。금융개혁유조우제고요소적배치효솔、타파금융억제격국，종이기도완해인구노령화충격적작용。본문실증분석료금융개혁완해인구노령화충격적효응。연구결과표명，금융개혁지수제고1개표준차，노년인점총인구비중대경제증장적부면영향장하강15.96%，노년인점총인구비중적변화대경제증장적부면영향장감소30.13%；대우발전중국가이언，금융개혁산생적효응경가돌출。
Now days, China has been the population aging. Under the background of population aging, labor supply and national saving will decline, which will lead to a higher cost of investment as well as a heavier burden of supprting the aging. However, financial reform can enhance the allocation efficiency of resource and solve the problems caused by financial repression. Therefore, financial reform can release the negative effect of population aging. The paper empirically investigates the financial reform effect of releasing the shock caused by population aging. The results show that an increase one financial reform index standard deviation will reduce the negative effect of population aging by 15.96% and the negative effect of population aging's marginal change will be nearly 30.13%. Furthermore, the above effect is more significant and outstanding for developing countries.
