CAJ | 학술논문

为了预测洞庭湖区域地下水资源量的变化趋势,制定应对地下水资源量较低年份的有效措施,通过分析洞庭湖区域河川天然径流量、长江三口入水量、城陵矶出水量与地下水资源量的变化趋势和相关性,运用多变量时间序列CAR模型,建立了洞庭湖区域地下水资源量的预测模型,验证了模型的预测效果；并运用该模型对洞庭湖区域地下水资源量的变化进行了预测。研究结果表明,洞庭湖区域河川天然径流量、长江三口入水量和城陵矶出水量的变化是引起地下水资源量变化的主要因素；本研究所建的模型模拟值与实测值相对误差的最大值为-7.47%,平均值为3.63%,表明该模型的预测精度高、效果好；通过对未来10年洞庭湖区域的地下水资源量进行预测可知,其平均值下降了0.49亿 m3,最低值下降了0.66亿 m3,表明该区域地下水资源量仍将持续降低；据不同方案下的地下水资源量预测结果可知,通过增加长江三口入水量,可以有效提高洞庭湖区域的地下水资源量。
위료예측동정호구역지하수자원량적변화추세,제정응대지하수자원량교저년빈적유효조시,통과분석동정호구역하천천연경류량、장강삼구입수량、성릉기출수량여지하수자원량적변화추세화상관성,운용다변량시간서렬CAR모형,건립료동정호구역지하수자원량적예측모형,험증료모형적예측효과；병운용해모형대동정호구역지하수자원량적변화진행료예측。연구결과표명,동정호구역하천천연경류량、장강삼구입수량화성릉기출수량적변화시인기지하수자원량변화적주요인소；본연구소건적모형모의치여실측치상대오차적최대치위-7.47%,평균치위3.63%,표명해모형적예측정도고、효과호；통과대미래10년동정호구역적지하수자원량진행예측가지,기평균치하강료0.49억 m3,최저치하강료0.66억 m3,표명해구역지하수자원량잉장지속강저；거불동방안하적지하수자원량예측결과가지,통과증가장강삼구입수량,가이유효제고동정호구역적지하수자원량。
In order to predict the change trend of groundwater resources in Dongting Lake area,effective measure is formulated to respond to the lower value year of groundwater re-sources.By analyzing the change trend and correlation between the nature river flow,Yan-gtze three inlet inflow water resources and Chenglingj i outflow water with groundwater re-sources,by using the multivariate time series CAR model,the prediction model of groundw-ater resources was established,the prediction effect of model was validated.The results show that (1)The change of nature river flow,Yangtze three inlet inflow water resources and Chenglingj i outflow water resources in Dongting Lake area are the main factors,which caused the change of groundwater resources.(2)The maximum relative error between simu-lated value and measured value of the model built in this article is -7.47%,the average val-ue of relative error is 3 .6 3%,it shows the prediction accuracy and effect of the model is good.(3)By predicting the groundwater resources in Dongting Lake area in the next 10 years,we can see that the average value of groundwater resources lower 0.049 billion m3 ,the lowest value of groundwater resources lower 0.066 billion m3 than the previous decade,it shows the groundwater resources in Dongting Lake area will continue to cut down.(4)Ac-cording to the predicted result of groundwater resources under different programs,we can know that the groundwater resources in Dongting Lake area can be improved by increasing the Yangtze three inlet inflow water resources.