CAJ | 학술논문

针对江苏沿海易遭受风暴潮影响的现状，分析了江苏历史上台风风暴潮灾害特征.选用 Holland 台风风场模型计算风场为强迫场，通过目前被国际上广泛接受的水动力模型 ADCIRC建立台风风暴潮模式.建立的江苏海域精细化风暴潮数值预报模型，结合江苏沿海岸线和地形变化特点，采用非结构网格技术对研究区域复杂海域进行重点加密，选取历史上影响江苏沿海典型的四个台风，进行江苏沿海精细化风暴潮后报检验.通过对影响江苏海域的不同时期的台风风暴潮过程的数值预报检验可以得出：台风风暴潮数值预报模型的后报相对误差为18.3%，预报相对误差不大于20%，能够较好的预报风暴潮过程的发展，刻画不同台风过程引起的风暴增水过程，实现了江苏省沿海台风风暴潮的3d数值预报.
침대강소연해역조수풍폭조영향적현상，분석료강소역사상태풍풍폭조재해특정.선용 Holland 태풍풍장모형계산풍장위강박장，통과목전피국제상엄범접수적수동력모형 ADCIRC건립태풍풍폭조모식.건립적강소해역정세화풍폭조수치예보모형，결합강소연해안선화지형변화특점，채용비결구망격기술대연구구역복잡해역진행중점가밀，선취역사상영향강소연해전형적사개태풍，진행강소연해정세화풍폭조후보검험.통과대영향강소해역적불동시기적태풍풍폭조과정적수치예보검험가이득출：태풍풍폭조수치예보모형적후보상대오차위18.3%，예보상대오차불대우20%，능구교호적예보풍폭조과정적발전，각화불동태풍과정인기적풍폭증수과정，실현료강소성연해태풍풍폭조적3d수치예보.
In order to evaluate the present status of storm surge risk for Jiangsu Province,we analyzed the characteristics of the typhoon storm surge disasters in the history of the Jiangsu coastal areas.Computational wind farm of Holland typhoon field model was choosing to be the forced wind field,hydrodynamic model ADCIRC (Advanced circulation model for oceanic,coastal and estuarine waters)was applied to establish a refined typhoon storm surge model for the Jiangsu coast.The refined storm surge numerical prediction model of Jiangsu marine area was constructed in combination with the various characteristics of the coastline and topography in Jiangsu coastal waters.The area for modeling was encrypted using the technique of unstructured grids.Selecting four typical typhoons,which had significant impacts on the Jiangsu coast in history,a refined storm surge model was applied to hindcast the typhoon effects.On the basis of the forcast verification of numerical storm surge process influencing the region for different periods,and the hindcast relative error of the typhoon storm surge numerical forecast model was 18.3%,the percentage of the forecast relative error is less than 20%,indicating that the model is able to forecast the development of storm surge process well.The model provides the prediction of the storm surge effects three days ahead of the occurrence of the typhoon.