CAJ | 학술논문

根据1979-2012年深圳企业数据，以 ADF 方法进行单位根检验，发现企业时序变量为1阶单整序列，继而进行协整检验和 Granger 检验，结合 VAR 和 VEC 模型计量结果，探讨了深圳第二产业和第三产业企业在演进过程中的长期均衡关系、短期因果关系和动态冲击影响，并基于企业区位熵法对产业演进结果的空间表现形态进行了分析，发现深圳产业发展过程中存在协整关系，第三产业企业增长是第二产业企业出现的 Granger 原因，脉冲响应函数反映两者相互的动态影响，产业协同演进结果空间分布上存在着分异现象。在研究结果的基础上提出相应的政策建议，以期促进城市产业合理演进。
근거1979-2012년심수기업수거，이 ADF 방법진행단위근검험，발현기업시서변량위1계단정서렬，계이진행협정검험화 Granger 검험，결합 VAR 화 VEC 모형계량결과，탐토료심수제이산업화제삼산업기업재연진과정중적장기균형관계、단기인과관계화동태충격영향，병기우기업구위적법대산업연진결과적공간표현형태진행료분석，발현심수산업발전과정중존재협정관계，제삼산업기업증장시제이산업기업출현적 Granger 원인，맥충향응함수반영량자상호적동태영향，산업협동연진결과공간분포상존재착분이현상。재연구결과적기출상제출상응적정책건의，이기촉진성시산업합리연진。
Based on the enterprises data of secondary and tertiary industry during 1979-2012 in Shenzhen, taking ADF method to implement root tests , by which the result indicated that the variables were 1 order integration process.And then long-term equilibrium relationship, short-term causality effects and dynamic impact between sec -ondary and tertiary industry were verified by using Engle -Granger cointegration analysis , Granger causality test, vec-tor autoregressive and vector error correction model .Location quotient for enterprises was introduced to analyze the spatial pattern of industrial evolution .Results show that cointegration relation exists through industrial development , the enterprises’growth of tertiary industry is Granger causality to the enterprises ’emergence of secondary industry and impulse response function reflects the dynamic effects of changes in both .The spatial pattern of industrial evolution reveals there are spatial differentiations between secondary and tertiary industry .Finally, according to these findings the corresponding policy recommendations are forwarded in order to promote the rational evolution of urban industries .