CAJ | 학술논문

利用阿勒泰地区1963-2012年7个气象站的最大冻土深度、平均气温，极端最低气温资料，采用回归分析、相关性检验、Mann-Kendall突变检测、Hurst提出的R/S分析等方法，对阿勒泰地区最大冻土深度的时间演变、空间分布及与气温的关系进行了分析。结果表明：吉木乃站的均方差和变差系数最大；阿勒泰地区最大冻土深度以0．574 cm·a-1的速度显著减少；年最大冻土深度几乎出现在2-3月；阿勒泰地区的最大冻土深度的突变时间是在1986-1987年，发生了下降趋势的突变，福海和富蕴站没有发生突变；阿勒泰地区年极端最大值、最大值的平均值、平均最大值均出现在青河站；年最大冻土深度与平均气温和极端最低气温呈显著负相关，其相关系数分别为-0．508和-0．293。
이용아륵태지구1963-2012년7개기상참적최대동토심도、평균기온，겁단최저기온자료，채용회귀분석、상관성검험、Mann-Kendall돌변검측、Hurst제출적R/S분석등방법，대아륵태지구최대동토심도적시간연변、공간분포급여기온적관계진행료분석。결과표명：길목내참적균방차화변차계수최대；아륵태지구최대동토심도이0．574 cm·a-1적속도현저감소；년최대동토심도궤호출현재2-3월；아륵태지구적최대동토심도적돌변시간시재1986-1987년，발생료하강추세적돌변，복해화부온참몰유발생돌변；아륵태지구년겁단최대치、최대치적평균치、평균최대치균출현재청하참；년최대동토심도여평균기온화겁단최저기온정현저부상관，기상관계수분별위-0．508화-0．293。
Based on the Maximum Frozen Soil Depth and annual mean temperature and Extreme low temperature across seven meteorological stations in Altay region from 1963-2012,using linear regression,Mann-Kendall mutation detection,Hurst R/S analysis method,the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of maximum depth and tempera-tures of frozen soil were analyzed .The results show:the mean-square deviation and coefficient of variation of maximum appears in Jimunai;the maximum depth have declined by 0 .574 cm·a-1;The annual maximum frozen depth almost al-ways occurs in February and March;Maximum Frozen Soil Depth appear an abrupt decrease in 1986-1987s in Altay re-gion;the deepest of annual Extreme and maximum of average and average of maximum depth appears in Qinghe;The Maximum Frozen Soil Depth and are negatively correlated with annual mean temperature and Extreme low temperature and the correlation coefficients are -0 .508 and -0 .293 .