干旱地区农业研究
榦旱地區農業研究
간한지구농업연구
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN THE ARID AREAS
2014年
5期
112-115
,共4页
全球变暖%物候期%渭北旱塬%生态响应
全毬變暖%物候期%渭北旱塬%生態響應
전구변난%물후기%위북한원%생태향응
global warming%phenological phase%Weibei dry plateau area%ecological response
通过对渭北旱塬区永寿、风翔、蒲城、旬邑4个农业气象试验站1971年到2010年冬小麦观测数据以及30个县市区同期气象资料同步观测分析，得出渭北旱塬区气候近40年来增温明显，且以冬季和春季增温最为显著。受气候变化影响，本区域冬小麦播种期、越冬期推迟，返青期、拔节期、抽穗期、成熟期等发育期普遍提前，以返青期提前最为显著，相关性分析显示，除了冬前生长期，冬小麦越冬期以及春季各发育期间隔和发育期平均气温相关显著，而且春季的相关性明显比冬季显著，但表现在发育期间隔方面，却是冬小麦越冬期呈显著缩短趋势，而返青后各发育期间隔没有明显变化。结论认为：气候变暖一方面有利于越冬农作物安全越冬，减少冻害对农业生产的影响，而且温度升高，也增加了农业生产积温，使农作物可生长期延长，有利于提高复种指数；另一方面，由于旱塬区春季气温变率较大，发育期提前将导致作物受冻害的气候风险增大，尤其果树开花期遭受冻害，将对产量构成严重威胁。冬季气温持续上升，将导致冬小麦条锈病孢子和林果病虫害等安全越冬，对病虫害防治工作带来很大难度。因此，气候变暖对旱塬农业生产将产生深刻的影响，应引起高度关注。
通過對渭北旱塬區永壽、風翔、蒲城、旬邑4箇農業氣象試驗站1971年到2010年鼕小麥觀測數據以及30箇縣市區同期氣象資料同步觀測分析，得齣渭北旱塬區氣候近40年來增溫明顯，且以鼕季和春季增溫最為顯著。受氣候變化影響，本區域鼕小麥播種期、越鼕期推遲，返青期、拔節期、抽穗期、成熟期等髮育期普遍提前，以返青期提前最為顯著，相關性分析顯示，除瞭鼕前生長期，鼕小麥越鼕期以及春季各髮育期間隔和髮育期平均氣溫相關顯著，而且春季的相關性明顯比鼕季顯著，但錶現在髮育期間隔方麵，卻是鼕小麥越鼕期呈顯著縮短趨勢，而返青後各髮育期間隔沒有明顯變化。結論認為：氣候變暖一方麵有利于越鼕農作物安全越鼕，減少凍害對農業生產的影響，而且溫度升高，也增加瞭農業生產積溫，使農作物可生長期延長，有利于提高複種指數；另一方麵，由于旱塬區春季氣溫變率較大，髮育期提前將導緻作物受凍害的氣候風險增大，尤其果樹開花期遭受凍害，將對產量構成嚴重威脅。鼕季氣溫持續上升，將導緻鼕小麥條鏽病孢子和林果病蟲害等安全越鼕，對病蟲害防治工作帶來很大難度。因此，氣候變暖對旱塬農業生產將產生深刻的影響，應引起高度關註。
통과대위북한원구영수、풍상、포성、순읍4개농업기상시험참1971년도2010년동소맥관측수거이급30개현시구동기기상자료동보관측분석，득출위북한원구기후근40년래증온명현，차이동계화춘계증온최위현저。수기후변화영향，본구역동소맥파충기、월동기추지，반청기、발절기、추수기、성숙기등발육기보편제전，이반청기제전최위현저，상관성분석현시，제료동전생장기，동소맥월동기이급춘계각발육기간격화발육기평균기온상관현저，이차춘계적상관성명현비동계현저，단표현재발육기간격방면，각시동소맥월동기정현저축단추세，이반청후각발육기간격몰유명현변화。결론인위：기후변난일방면유리우월동농작물안전월동，감소동해대농업생산적영향，이차온도승고，야증가료농업생산적온，사농작물가생장기연장，유리우제고복충지수；령일방면，유우한원구춘계기온변솔교대，발육기제전장도치작물수동해적기후풍험증대，우기과수개화기조수동해，장대산량구성엄중위협。동계기온지속상승，장도치동소맥조수병포자화림과병충해등안전월동，대병충해방치공작대래흔대난도。인차，기후변난대한원농업생산장산생심각적영향，응인기고도관주。
Through the observation and analysis for the measured data of winter wheat in four agro-meteorological experiment stations as Yongshou,Fengxiang,Pucheng and Xunyi in the weibei dry plateau areas from 1971 to 2010 and the meteorological data in 30 Counties and City’s Districts in corresponding periods,have obtained that:In recent 40 years,the temperature evidently increased in these areas,especially the temperature increase in Winter and Spring sea-son,were the most remarkable .Affected by climate change,the sowing time and wintering period of the winter wheat was delayed,but the turning green period,jointing stage,heading stage and the maturation period total were advanced .A-mong them,the turning green stage was the most distinct .Shown by the correlation analysis,except the growth stage be-fore winter,the Wintering period as well as the Spring season,each interval with the average temperature in growth peri-od has close relationship .Furthermore,the relationship in Spring was more obvious than in Winter .But expressed in the growth period interval,the wintering period of winter wheat was obviously decreased .While after turning green period the growth stage interval has no any obvious change .It can be concluded that:The climate warming will be useful the winter-ing crop to safe in Winter season,also reduce the impact of freeze injury to the agricultural production .Further more the temperature increase will be added the accumulated temperature for the agricultural production,it will be lengthened the crop growth period and useful to increase the multiple crop index .In other hand,because variety rate of temperature in Spring season will be rather big in dry plateau area,so advancing growth stage will cause the increase for the crop freeze risk,especially if the flower stage of the fruit trees suffer the freeze injury,will be cause serious threat for the yield .If the temperature in Winter season continue to increase,will cause the winter wheat stripe rust spore and fruit diseases and pests,to bring big difficulty for the prevention and control of pests and diseases .Therefore,the climate warming will be produced deep influence for the agricultural production in dry plateau,so should be caused high attention .
