CAJ | 학술논문

利用1998-2012年我国省域面板数据，应用主成分分析方法构建城市扩张指数和城市转型指数，并测算各省份各年的碳排放总量，在此基础上，采用基于 VECM 的格兰杰因果检验来探讨城市扩张、城市转型与碳排放之间的长短期关系，并应用广义脉冲响应函数分析变量间的短期冲击机制。研究显示：（1）短期内，城市转型与碳排放之间存在双向因果关系。（2）碳排放与城市扩张联合形成了城市转型的长、短期格兰杰原因。（3）长期中，碳排放与城市转型联合形成了城市扩张的格兰杰原因。（4）城市扩张与城市转型仅仅能在短期内联合构成了碳排放增加的格兰杰原因，并不能产生长久稳定的格局。据此，得出一些科学规划城市发展及有效推进减少碳排放的政策启示。
이용1998-2012년아국성역면판수거，응용주성분분석방법구건성시확장지수화성시전형지수，병측산각성빈각년적탄배방총량，재차기출상，채용기우 VECM 적격란걸인과검험래탐토성시확장、성시전형여탄배방지간적장단기관계，병응용엄의맥충향응함수분석변량간적단기충격궤제。연구현시：（1）단기내，성시전형여탄배방지간존재쌍향인과관계。（2）탄배방여성시확장연합형성료성시전형적장、단기격란걸원인。（3）장기중，탄배방여성시전형연합형성료성시확장적격란걸원인。（4）성시확장여성시전형부부능재단기내연합구성료탄배방증가적격란걸원인，병불능산생장구은정적격국。거차，득출일사과학규화성시발전급유효추진감소탄배방적정책계시。
Based on the provincial panel data in China during 1998-2012, this study applies the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct the city expansion (CE) and city transformation (CT) indices, as well as estimates the carbon dioxide emissions (CDE)in each province every year.Then, a Granger causality test based on VECM is used to study the long -and-short-term relationships between CE, CT, and CDE, while a generalized im-pulse response function is also applied to explore their short -term impact mechanism.The main results are as fol-lows: (1) There exists a bilateral causal relationship between CT and CDE .(2)CDE together with CE are the Granger-cause of CT both in long-term and short-term.(3) CDE and CT are the long-term Granger-cause of CE. (4) CE and CT are the Granger-cause of CDE in short-term but not in long-term.Thus, this paper obtains some policy implications for planning city development and promoting carbon reduction .