CAJ | 학술논문

选取山东省140个市、县为样本，利用年际集中指数，基于空间插值方法和竞争态模型对1990-2013年山东省旅游节庆进行研究。旅游节庆经历了起步期、发展期和腾飞期3个发展阶段。年内旅游节庆活动淡旺季分明，4-10月是其多发频段，秋季的数量约占总量的40％，而春夏之交的比例约为38％。年内季节性分布从“三峰三谷”型演变为“双峰双谷”型，气候因素、节庆主题的季节性、资源禀赋是其主要原因。持续时间的峰值有8个，持续一周之内的节庆数量约为55％。公共假日和带薪假期、“暑假游”、经济效益是其主要驱动因素。季节年际变化大，呈波动性下降趋势，年际集中指数由1990年的15．04下降到2013年的8．32。持续时间和数量呈现出“西低东高”特征，前者和后者分别为“两峰两谷”和“三级阶梯状”。节庆的地区差异显著，瘦狗类地区比例最高。
선취산동성140개시、현위양본，이용년제집중지수，기우공간삽치방법화경쟁태모형대1990-2013년산동성여유절경진행연구。여유절경경력료기보기、발전기화등비기3개발전계단。년내여유절경활동담왕계분명，4-10월시기다발빈단，추계적수량약점총량적40％，이춘하지교적비례약위38％。년내계절성분포종“삼봉삼곡”형연변위“쌍봉쌍곡”형，기후인소、절경주제적계절성、자원품부시기주요원인。지속시간적봉치유8개，지속일주지내적절경수량약위55％。공공가일화대신가기、“서가유”、경제효익시기주요구동인소。계절년제변화대，정파동성하강추세，년제집중지수유1990년적15．04하강도2013년적8．32。지속시간화수량정현출“서저동고”특정，전자화후자분별위“량봉량곡”화“삼급계제상”。절경적지구차이현저，수구류지구비례최고。
By annual concentration index , spatial interpolation and competition model , tourism festivals of 140 counties in Shandong Province have been researched based on data from 1990 to 2013.Tourism festivals can be divid-ed into three stages of the initial , developmental and boom stage , there is off-season and busy-season for it, it mainly happened from April to October .The ratio of it in autumn is about 40%, and the ratio of late spring and early sum -mer season is about 38%, the seasonal distribution of it starts to vary from three -peak and three-valley to two-peak and two-valley.Climate, resource endowments and the themes are mainly factors .It has eight-peak of tourism festi-vals duration, and the most quantity of less seven days account for 55%.Public holidays and paid vacation , summer holidays, economic efficiency are the primary driving factors .Seasonality of tourism festival vary largely in inter -an-nual, it shows the trend of decline, and the value of R dropped from 15.04 to 8.32.Both duration and the number of tourism festivals’ spatial distribution presents “weak in west, strong in east”, it shows two-peak and two-valley of the former, and three-step of the latter.It takes obvious regional difference , the type of dogs area has the largest .