CAJ | 학술논문

针对横截面数据的复杂装备费用预测问题，由于主要参数比较相似的装备系统其研制费用往往趋同，提出了横截面数据的“相似信息优先原理”。分析新研装备与以往装备的相似度，按照指标信息的相似度区分横截面信息的优先次序。用归一化的相似度作为加权最小二乘法的权重，通过实例建立相似信息优先的回归模型，并与其他方法的结果对比，结果表明本文的方法具有更高的预测精度，相似信息优先的多元回归模型充分反映了相似信息的规律。
침대횡절면수거적복잡장비비용예측문제，유우주요삼수비교상사적장비계통기연제비용왕왕추동，제출료횡절면수거적“상사신식우선원리”。분석신연장비여이왕장비적상사도，안조지표신식적상사도구분횡절면신식적우선차서。용귀일화적상사도작위가권최소이승법적권중，통과실례건립상사신식우선적회귀모형，병여기타방법적결과대비，결과표명본문적방법구유경고적예측정도，상사신식우선적다원회귀모형충분반영료상사신식적규률。
The similar information priority principle is put forward in order to predict the complicated equip-ment costs from the data of the cross section,because the similar main parameters of complicated equipment systems often lead to the similar cost.The similarity between new researched equipment and past equipment is analyzed,and the information priorities are distinguished according to the similarity of index cross section infor-mation.The normalized similarity is regarded as the weight of the weighted least squares,the regression model with similar information priority is set up,and the results are compared with other methods.The results of three examples show that the proposed method has higher prediction precision,and the multiple regression mo-del with similar information priority reflects the similar information law.