CAJ | 학술논문

针对大型设备结构复杂，健康状态难以评估的问题，以设备最小可监测或可评估单元健康状态为输入，建立了健康退化Petri网模型，利用健康等级信度的变化描述复杂设备全系统各层次单元的健康状态退化情况。首先给出了健康退化Petri网的定义，分析了库所间“冗余”、“共同”、“并发”以及“继发”四种关系形式，用以评估各层次单元健康状态；然后分析了健康状态信度转换为健康度的规则并给出一种线性映射方法；根据健康状态退化趋势特点，在离散灰色模型中引入非线性时变项，提出了基于粒子群优化的拓展非线性时变参数离散灰色模型的健康度预测算法。最后将模型应用于某发射装置的健康状态退化分析，说明了模型的适用性。
침대대형설비결구복잡，건강상태난이평고적문제，이설비최소가감측혹가평고단원건강상태위수입，건립료건강퇴화Petri망모형，이용건강등급신도적변화묘술복잡설비전계통각층차단원적건강상태퇴화정황。수선급출료건강퇴화Petri망적정의，분석료고소간“용여”、“공동”、“병발”이급“계발”사충관계형식，용이평고각층차단원건강상태；연후분석료건강상태신도전환위건강도적규칙병급출일충선성영사방법；근거건강상태퇴화추세특점，재리산회색모형중인입비선성시변항，제출료기우입자군우화적탁전비선성시변삼수리산회색모형적건강도예측산법。최후장모형응용우모발사장치적건강상태퇴화분석，설명료모형적괄용성。
Due to the complex structures of large equipment,it is difficult to assess heath conditions of large equipment accurately.To solve this problem,health degradation Petri nets (HDPN)is presented.In this mo-del,degradation information of the minimum monitoring units is taken as the input.The degradation of health conditions is described by the changes of the credibility of health grades.Four types of relationships between places are analyzed to assess health conditions accurately.Then,the transforming rules between health degree and health credibility are proposed.According to the characteristics of the health condition degradation,non-li-near time-varying parameters are introduced in the discrete grey model,which is used to forecast health condi-tions.Finally,health degradation of some launcher is analyzed by using the proposed model.Results show that this model is practicable.