CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用引入财产性收入的托达罗人口转移模型分析城乡预期收入差距与流动意愿的关系，利用绥棱县农民工流动影响因素调查问卷数据建立logit和probit回归模型，结果表明本次实证分析得到的结果与引入财产性收入的托达罗人口转移模型分析得到的结果基本一致。其中，财产性收入对农村劳动力转移具有正向作用，但在转移成本、外出打工收入、财产性收入三个影响因素排序上，财产性收入最小。这说明托达罗人口转移模型的分析范式仍然基本符合目前我国劳动力转移的实际情况；但从动态的角度看，随着农民财产性收入的增加，其影响程度和作用方向上可能发生变化。
본문채용인입재산성수입적탁체라인구전이모형분석성향예기수입차거여류동의원적관계，이용수릉현농민공류동영향인소조사문권수거건립logit화probit회귀모형，결과표명본차실증분석득도적결과여인입재산성수입적탁체라인구전이모형분석득도적결과기본일치。기중，재산성수입대농촌노동력전이구유정향작용，단재전이성본、외출타공수입、재산성수입삼개영향인소배서상，재산성수입최소。저설명탁체라인구전이모형적분석범식잉연기본부합목전아국노동력전이적실제정황；단종동태적각도간，수착농민재산성수입적증가，기영향정도화작용방향상가능발생변화。
This paper analyzes the relationship between urban and rural expected income gap and the flow will by intro -ducing Todaro population transfer model of property income , and establishes logit and probit regression model using flow factors questionnaire data of Suiling County migrant workers .The results show the empirical analysis results are basically consistent with that of Todaro population transfer model with introduction property income .Among them , the property in-come has a positive role on the rural labor force transfer , but it is minimum compared with transfer cost and migrant workers′sort income.This shows that the analysis paradigm of Todaro population shift model basically accords with cur -rent actual condition of labor transfer in China;but from a dynamic point of view , with the increase of farmers′property income, its influence extent and direction of action may change .