CAJ | 학술논문

中国铜资源稀缺且分布相对集中。建国以来，矿山铜产量增长迅速，但远不能满足下游行业需求；同时，我国矿山铜产业布局和精炼铜产业布局并不匹配，一些省区需大量外购铜精矿。本文基于资源、采选技术、产业政策等方面的假设条件，考虑近10年实际产量变化趋势、保有资源储量的利用程度、主产区和资源集中区资源储量与产量的匹配度、资源禀赋条件、未来矿产资源需求量等因素对未来我国矿山铜的年供应能力进行预测。分析结果表明，西藏矿山铜供应能力增长潜力巨大，是未来我国铜矿资源供应的一个主要增长点；预计到2020年，我国矿山铜产量仍将继续保持上升趋势；此后，矿山铜产能增长受限，将在一段时期内保持稳定。
중국동자원희결차분포상대집중。건국이래，광산동산량증장신속，단원불능만족하유행업수구；동시，아국광산동산업포국화정련동산업포국병불필배，일사성구수대량외구동정광。본문기우자원、채선기술、산업정책등방면적가설조건，고필근10년실제산량변화추세、보유자원저량적이용정도、주산구화자원집중구자원저량여산량적필배도、자원품부조건、미래광산자원수구량등인소대미래아국광산동적년공응능력진행예측。분석결과표명，서장광산동공응능력증장잠력거대，시미래아국동광자원공응적일개주요증장점；예계도2020년，아국광산동산량잉장계속보지상승추세；차후，광산동산능증장수한，장재일단시기내보지은정。
In China ,copper resources are scarce and relatively concentrated .Since the founding of new China ,mine production has increased rapidly ,but cannot satisfy the demand for downstream industries ;at the same time ,refined copper industrial layout and mine copper industrial layout is not matching ,some provinces require lots of purchased copper concentrate .In this paper ,based on some consumptions such as resources ,mining technology ,industrial policy ,to forecast the future copper ore supply capacity in China , considering the actual production trends in recent 10 years ,degree of utilization of reserves ,the resource reserves and production matching degree of maintain reserves areas and production areas ,resources conditions ,the future demand for mineral resources and other factors .The analysis results show that ,copper ore supply capability growth in Tibet has great potential ,is a major growth point of China’ s copper resources supply in the future;it is expected that by 2020 ,China copper mine production will continue to maintain an upward trend;thereafter ,copper mine production growth is limited ,will remain stable over a period of time .