CAJ | 학술논문

商品市场运行与宏观经济周期紧密相关，商品市场波动可以视为经济波动在流通领域的一种反映，同样也会呈现类似于经济周期波动的特点。本文基于三区制马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型（MS-VAR 模型），将改革开放以来湖南省商品市场周期波动划分为“低速增长区制”、“适速增长区制”以及“高速增长区制”，以识别其非线性特征。研究结果表明，湖南省商品市场周期波动在不同区制间存在明显的非对称性，处于适速增长期和高速增长期的频率相比于低速增长期要高，平均持续时间更长。1995年以来，湖南省商品市场周期没有出现在低速增长区制内，集中在适速增长和高速增长两个区制内转换。与湖南省经济周期波动相比，商品市场周期波动更为频繁，湖南省经济周期波动是商品市场周期波动的单向格兰杰原因。最后提出促进湖南省商品市场平稳运行的政策建议。
상품시장운행여굉관경제주기긴밀상관，상품시장파동가이시위경제파동재류통영역적일충반영，동양야회정현유사우경제주기파동적특점。본문기우삼구제마이과부구제전환향량자회귀모형（MS-VAR 모형），장개혁개방이래호남성상품시장주기파동화분위“저속증장구제”、“괄속증장구제”이급“고속증장구제”，이식별기비선성특정。연구결과표명，호남성상품시장주기파동재불동구제간존재명현적비대칭성，처우괄속증장기화고속증장기적빈솔상비우저속증장기요고，평균지속시간경장。1995년이래，호남성상품시장주기몰유출현재저속증장구제내，집중재괄속증장화고속증장량개구제내전환。여호남성경제주기파동상비，상품시장주기파동경위빈번，호남성경제주기파동시상품시장주기파동적단향격란걸원인。최후제출촉진호남성상품시장평은운행적정책건의。
The commodity market is closely correlated with Macro economic cycl. The fluctuation of commodity market,as a reflection of economic fluctuations in the field of circulation,also presents the similar characteristics. Based on the three regime Markov switching vector autoregression model (MS-VAR model),Hunan province’s commodity market cycle can be divided into“low-speed growth regime”,“medium-speed growth regime”and “high-speed growth regime”since the reform and opening up. According to the result of estimation and test,Hunan province’s commodity market fluctuation tends to be asymmetric in different district,compared to the low -speed growth regime,frequency of medium -speed growth regime and high -speed growth regime is higher,average duration is longer. Since 1995,Hunan province’s commodity market cycle does not appear in the low-speed growth regime,and frequently switches between medium-speed growth regime and high-speed growth regime. Compared with the economic fluctuation of Hunan Province,the commodity market fluctuation is more frequent. The economic fluctuation of Hunan province is a one -way Granger reason to the commodity market fluctuation. Finally,we put forward some suggestions on how to enhance the stability of Hunan province’s commodity market.