CAJ | 학술논문

对近年来用条件非线性最优扰动法研究大气与海洋目标观测问题的部分工作进行了总结，主要涉及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）事件、黑潮路径变异事件以及阻塞事件。通过研究这些事件发生的最优前期征兆（OPR）和最快增长初始误差（OGE），发现这些事件的最优前期征兆和最快增长初始误差分别具有空间的高度相似性及其伴随的局地性特征。理想回报试验表明，如果在ENSO事件和黑潮路径变异事件的最快增长初始误差和最优前期征兆所确定的扰动大值区减小初始场误差，上述事件的预报技巧会大幅度提高；最优前期征兆和最快增长初始误差的空间相似性使得在同一敏感区域增加额外观测，不仅有助于捕捉上述异常事件的前期信号，还可以有效减小初始误差，从而提高对该事件的预报技巧。阻塞事件爆发的最优前期征兆和最快增长初始误差的空间相似性和局地性特征在其目标观测研究中的应用，应该是深入研究的课题。
대근년래용조건비선성최우우동법연구대기여해양목표관측문제적부분공작진행료총결，주요섭급액이니낙-남방도동（ENSO）사건、흑조로경변이사건이급조새사건。통과연구저사사건발생적최우전기정조（OPR）화최쾌증장초시오차（OGE），발현저사사건적최우전기정조화최쾌증장초시오차분별구유공간적고도상사성급기반수적국지성특정。이상회보시험표명，여과재ENSO사건화흑조로경변이사건적최쾌증장초시오차화최우전기정조소학정적우동대치구감소초시장오차，상술사건적예보기교회대폭도제고；최우전기정조화최쾌증장초시오차적공간상사성사득재동일민감구역증가액외관측，불부유조우포착상술이상사건적전기신호，환가이유효감소초시오차，종이제고대해사건적예보기교。조새사건폭발적최우전기정조화최쾌증장초시오차적공간상사성화국지성특정재기목표관측연구중적응용，응해시심입연구적과제。
This paper reviews progress in the application of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation to targeted observation studies of the atmosphere and ocean in recent years,with a focus on the El Ni?no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO),Kuroshio path variations,and blocking events.Through studying the optimal precursor (OPR)and optimally growing initial error (OGE)of the occurrence of the above events,the similarity and localization features of the OPR and OGE spatial structures have been found for each event.Ideal hindcasting experiments have shown that,if initial errors are reduced in the areas with the largest amplitude for the OPR and OGE for ENSO and the Kuroshio path variations,the forecast skill of the model for these e-vents is significantly improved.Due to the similarity between patterns of the OPR and OGE,additional observations implemen-ted in the same sensitive region would help to not only capture the precursors,but also reduce the initial errors in the predic-tions,greatly increasing the forecast abilities.The similarity and localization of the spatial structures of the OPR and OGE dur-ing the onset of blocking events have also been investigated,but their application to targeted observation requires further study.