CAJ | 학술논문

重大持续改进项目已成为制造业企业提高全员创新能力、加快运营转型的重要载体。这些重大持续改进项目具有投资大、周期长、分阶段投资、不确定性高、灵活性强等特点，而传统的NPV方法忽略了这类项目的灵活性决策价值，不能准确进行价值评估，容易导致决策者丧失投资机会。考虑到环境的不确定性，在挖掘重大持续改进项目的实物期权特性后，本文采用模糊数学和复合实物期权相结合的方法，构建了此类项目的估值模型。案例研究结果表明：该方法能有效识别项目管理的灵活性价值，为管理者的项目投资决策提供重要保障；同时，该方法对于同类项目的估值也具有一定参考意义。
중대지속개진항목이성위제조업기업제고전원창신능력、가쾌운영전형적중요재체。저사중대지속개진항목구유투자대、주기장、분계단투자、불학정성고、령활성강등특점，이전통적NPV방법홀략료저류항목적령활성결책개치，불능준학진행개치평고，용역도치결책자상실투자궤회。고필도배경적불학정성，재알굴중대지속개진항목적실물기권특성후，본문채용모호수학화복합실물기권상결합적방법，구건료차류항목적고치모형。안례연구결과표명：해방법능유효식별항목관리적령활성개치，위관리자적항목투자결책제공중요보장；동시，해방법대우동류항목적고치야구유일정삼고의의。
In the era of knowledge economics,the significant continuous improvement project which in-tegrates the lean and continuously improving thinking has been an important way for the manufacturing firms to improve the ability of all-involvement innovation and speed up their operational transformation.The significant continuous improvement project has the characteristics of large investment taken,long life cycle,phrase invest-ment,high uncertainty and flexibility and the like.However,the traditional Net Present Value method ignores the decision-making value of flexibility in such project,which easily leads to assessing the value inaccurately and the loss of decision-makersopportunities of investment.Considering the uncertainty of the environment,the paper analyzes the characteristics of real option in the significant continuous improvement project,and structures the pricing model on fuzzy compound real option.The result of the case study indicates that the model can effec-tively identify the value of flexibility of project management so as to facilitate managersinvestment decision due diligence and also has some reference value for the valuation of similar projects.