CAJ | 학술논문

通过对改革开放以来我国耕地保护政策绩效的定量分析，为健全耕地保护政策提供参考依据。根据修正后的耕地面积数据（1978-2012年）和耕地保护相关的经济社会因素，构建耕地数量变化的多元线性回归模型。在对耕地保护政策发展历程、现有体系分析的基础上，依据该模型对35年来耕地保护政策的绩效进行了分析。研究结果显示，我国耕地保护政策绩效显著，35年共遏制耕地减少面积250．963×104 hm2，遏制耕地减少贡献率达17．35％。耕地保护政策绩效有着明显的时间差异性，不同阶段政策遏制耕地减少的贡献率差异明显；但在耕地保护政策发展的4个阶段，政策遏制耕地减少的贡献率是逐渐上升的。说明耕地保护政策在不断的发展，耕地保护政策的绩效在逐渐发挥。2003-2012年，耕地减少面积逐渐稳定并降至多年来的最低点，同时政策遏制耕地减少的贡献率达到峰值；反映耕地数量保护的目标绩效显著，达到了顶峰。同时，提出了未来的耕地保护工作需要突出耕地的质量建设和生态建设两个着重点。
통과대개혁개방이래아국경지보호정책적효적정량분석，위건전경지보호정책제공삼고의거。근거수정후적경지면적수거（1978-2012년）화경지보호상관적경제사회인소，구건경지수량변화적다원선성회귀모형。재대경지보호정책발전역정、현유체계분석적기출상，의거해모형대35년래경지보호정책적적효진행료분석。연구결과현시，아국경지보호정책적효현저，35년공알제경지감소면적250．963×104 hm2，알제경지감소공헌솔체17．35％。경지보호정책적효유착명현적시간차이성，불동계단정책알제경지감소적공헌솔차이명현；단재경지보호정책발전적4개계단，정책알제경지감소적공헌솔시축점상승적。설명경지보호정책재불단적발전，경지보호정책적적효재축점발휘。2003-2012년，경지감소면적축점은정병강지다년래적최저점，동시정책알제경지감소적공헌솔체도봉치；반영경지수량보호적목표적효현저，체도료정봉。동시，제출료미래적경지보호공작수요돌출경지적질량건설화생태건설량개착중점。
Since reform and opening , it is provide a reference for completing cultivated land protection policies that through analyzed quantitative the performance of cultivated land protection policies in china .Based on analyzed the devel-opment process and the existing system of cultivated land protection policies .According the corrected data of cultivated land area (1978-2012 ) and the economic-social factors associated with cultivated land protection , this paper estab-lished a multiply linear regression model about the change of cultivated land data .The performance of cultivated land pro -tection policies for 35 years is analyzed by the model .The result shows that the performance of cultivated land protection policies is significant.The policies contained the area 250.963×104 hm2 and distribution rate 17.35% of cultivated land reduction .The performance of cultivated land protection policies has a significantly time difference .The distribution rate of the policies to contain cultivated land reduction is significant difference for different stages .However , the distribution rate of the policies contained the cultivated land area reduction was gradually rising in the four stages of the development process for cultivated land protection policies .It shows that cultivated land protection policies is in constant development , and the performance of which is play gradually .The reduction of cultivated land fell to the lowest point and stabilized gradually in the 2003-2012 stage .While the distribution rate of the policies contained the cultivated land area reduction achieved a peak .In the future , the work of cultivated land protection needs to highlight the two emphases are quality and ecological construction .