CAJ | 학술논문

我国农业机械化作业水平的发展变化具有增长性和波动性，对预测的方法要求较高。鉴于单一预测模型的局限性，在确定我国农业机械化作业水平各单一预测模型的基础上，建立了基于BP 神经网络的农业机械化作业水平非线性组合预测模型，并对我国农业机械化作业水平进行预测。误差分析表明，该模型可以有效地提高农业机械化作业水平的预测精度，用该模型对我国2012-2020年农业机械化耕、播、收作业水平进行了预测。预测结果表明，在未来几年我国农业机械化作业水平将保持快速增长趋势，到2020年机耕、机播和机收作业水平分别为91．37％、66．77％和71．93％。
아국농업궤계화작업수평적발전변화구유증장성화파동성，대예측적방법요구교고。감우단일예측모형적국한성，재학정아국농업궤계화작업수평각단일예측모형적기출상，건립료기우BP 신경망락적농업궤계화작업수평비선성조합예측모형，병대아국농업궤계화작업수평진행예측。오차분석표명，해모형가이유효지제고농업궤계화작업수평적예측정도，용해모형대아국2012-2020년농업궤계화경、파、수작업수평진행료예측。예측결과표명，재미래궤년아국농업궤계화작업수평장보지쾌속증장추세，도2020년궤경、궤파화궤수작업수평분별위91．37％、66．77％화71．93％。
The developmental trend of operation level of agricultural mechanization is increase and fluctuation in China , which has a high request to the prediction method .In view of the limitations of single prediction models , nonlinear com-bined prediction model for operation level of agricultural mechanization was put forward on the basis of establishing single prediction models for operation level of agricultural mechanization in China .The results of error analysis showed that this prediction model could efficiently improve prediction accuracy for operation level of agricultural mechanization , operation level of agricultural mechanization were predicted from 2012 to 2020 in China .The prediction results showed that the op-eration level of agricultural mechanization will maintain swift growth tendency in the future several years , mechanization level of ploughing , sowing and harvesting will be 91 .37%,66 .77%and 71 .93%respectively .