CAJ | 학술논문

[目的]建立猪链球菌2型毒力强弱的预测模型，为降低养猪业的经济损失提供参考。[方法]本研究以已报道的国内猪链球菌2型分离株的6种主要毒力因子（mrp、epf、sly、orf2、fbps、gapdh）的存在情况为自变量，以毒力强弱为因变量，采用逐步回归的方法进行二分类Logistic回归分析，得出鉴别猪链球菌2型毒力强弱的数学模型，并通过ROC曲线评价其预测效能。[结果]进入回归方程的指标有：mrp（X1）和sly（X3），求得的回归方程为：P=1/〔1+e-（-5.671+4.642 X1+4.253X3）〕。ROC曲线最佳诊断点为0.5581。回归方程对毒力强弱预测的敏感度为93.8%，特异度为94.6%，准确度为94%。[结论]联合运用Logistic回归和ROC曲线预测猪链球菌2型毒力的强弱是可行的，mrp和sly两个指标独立应用对鉴别都有诊断价值，但二者联合起来诊断价值更高且预测效果更理想。
[목적]건립저련구균2형독력강약적예측모형，위강저양저업적경제손실제공삼고。[방법]본연구이이보도적국내저련구균2형분리주적6충주요독력인자（mrp、epf、sly、orf2、fbps、gapdh）적존재정황위자변량，이독력강약위인변량，채용축보회귀적방법진행이분류Logistic회귀분석，득출감별저련구균2형독력강약적수학모형，병통과ROC곡선평개기예측효능。[결과]진입회귀방정적지표유：mrp（X1）화sly（X3），구득적회귀방정위：P=1/〔1+e-（-5.671+4.642 X1+4.253X3）〕。ROC곡선최가진단점위0.5581。회귀방정대독력강약예측적민감도위93.8%，특이도위94.6%，준학도위94%。[결론]연합운용Logistic회귀화ROC곡선예측저련구균2형독력적강약시가행적，mrp화sly량개지표독립응용대감별도유진단개치，단이자연합기래진단개치경고차예측효과경이상。
To establish the prediction model of Streptococcus Suis 2(SS2),and provide the theoryetical reference for reducing losses of pig farming,6 virulence factors of SS2 were selected as independent variables,including mrp, epf,sly,orf2,fbps and gapdh. And the pathogenicity was selected as dependent variables. 2-stage least squares was performed. Then ROC curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic effi ciency after regression model was constructed. The results showed that mrp and sly were remained in the regression model P=1/〔1+e-(-5.671+4.642X1+4.253X3)〕. The best diagnostic point was 0.5581. The sensitivity,specificity and accuracy of the regression equation to detect the pathogenicity of SS2 were 93.8%,94.6% and 94% respectively. These results indicated that it was feasible to use regression model and ROC curve in SS2 predicting. And joint using mrp and sly combined were more effective in diagnostic value for clinical screening than using them alone.