CAJ | 학술논문

汶川8.0级地震引起了社会广泛地关注，产生了地震能否预测的疑问以及汶川地震前是否出现了异常的讨论，震后一些学者对前兆资料进行了研究总结，本文在前人研究的基础上仅对地下流体异常进行了分析，认为汶川地震前存在着一些地下流体异常，本文从中期异常、短临异常、同震及震后调整这几个方面对水氡、水位、水温、流量资料进行了分析研究。通过对中期异常的识别及提取，认为采用从属函数方法定量提取异常效果较为理想。
문천8.0급지진인기료사회엄범지관주，산생료지진능부예측적의문이급문천지진전시부출현료이상적토론，진후일사학자대전조자료진행료연구총결，본문재전인연구적기출상부대지하류체이상진행료분석，인위문천지진전존재착일사지하류체이상，본문종중기이상、단림이상、동진급진후조정저궤개방면대수동、수위、수온、류량자료진행료분석연구。통과대중기이상적식별급제취，인위채용종속함수방법정량제취이상효과교위이상。
The Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake caused widespread attention.To determine whether earthquakes can be predicted and whether anomalies are present before earthquakes,several scholars have previously studied a summary of the precursory data of the Wenchuan earthquake. On the basis of such previous research,the present study analyzes the anomalies of underground fluid present before the earthquake.By using the methods of medium-term anomaly,short term and imminent abnormalities,co-seismic variation,and the adjustment after the earthquake,this study analyzes the data of water radon,water level,water temperature,and flow.Using the sub-ordinate function extraction for recognition and extraction of the medium-term anomaly proved to be effective.The Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake,with intensity up to XI,caused inestimable hu-man and economic losses in the affected areas involving 125,500 km2 in 247 counties,cities,and districts.69,180 people died,374,008 were injured,and 17,406 were reported missing.More than 10 million people were affected.785.88 million houses collapsed,and 2,421.54 million were severely damaged.The direct economic damage could substantially exceed RMB 845.1 billion. This disaster occurred for four main reasons.First,the earthquake had a large magnitude,high energy,and shallow focus.Fracturing lasted up to 90 s,and the earthquake excitation was more powerful in the fracture zones.Second,because the fracture surface continued for several hundred kilometers through the town,the earthquake wreaked havoc on the buildings.Third,the earth-quake occurred in the mountains.Fourth,secondary effects aggravated the disaster.Field investi-gation and the precursory data research by previous scholars revealed that the Wenchuan earth-quake included macro-precursor abnormalities and seismic effects.This earthquake had the largest magnitude of those occurring in north-south seismic belt in recent years.Therefore,it is necessa-ry to summarize the Wenchuan earthquake precursor anomaly. In recent years,China’s seismic monitoring network has become denser,and the observation scale has become greater.Data have been accumulated for moderate earthquakes.In addition, many achievements have been in fundamental theories,earthquake prediction methods,and the precursory mechanism.In the history of more than 40 years of earthquake monitoring and fore-casting,20 destructive events have been predicted with varying degrees of success.Despite some progress in the method of forecasting,it is quite difficult to predict earthquakes.Therefore, earthquake prediction is still in the primary stage.Although the Wenchuan earthquake was not predicted,some abnormal fluid phenomena appeared before the earthquake.By summarizing and analyzing data after the earthquake,some scholars detected 28 credible underground fluid anoma-lies within 1000 km in addition to 1 1 suspected abnormalities and 1 94 coseismic abnormalities.A month after the Wenchuan earthquake,the China Earthquake Administration subsurface fluid disciplinary technical coordination group found 39 suspected underground fluid abnormalities within 1,000 km from the epicenter.According to the Sichuan Seismological Bureau of Statistics, nine underground fluid anomalies may be related to the Wenchuan earthquake.Despite an excep-tion,it is certain that subsurface fluid exists before the earthquake anomalies.The following ex-ception is divided into short-term,short-Pro,and coseismic anomalies,which are discussed in this paper.