CAJ | 학술논문

利用向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数，对改革开放以来我国公共物质资本投资、公共人力资本投资、公共科研投资对第一、二、三产业比重的动态影响效应进行分析。研究表明，对于公共投资三大结构的冲击，产业结构的响应均表现出一定的时滞性和有限性，且在影响的方向、程度和持续时间上都呈现出不同的特点；第一、二、三产业的波动主要是由公共物质资本投资和人力资本投资的增减变动引起。针对这些现象，我国在公共投资的过程中应当注意协调投资的时间，不仅仅只关注短期经济增长，更应着眼于长期经济增长，保持投资的持续性。
이용향량자회귀모형화맥충향응함수，대개혁개방이래아국공공물질자본투자、공공인력자본투자、공공과연투자대제일、이、삼산업비중적동태영향효응진행분석。연구표명，대우공공투자삼대결구적충격，산업결구적향응균표현출일정적시체성화유한성，차재영향적방향、정도화지속시간상도정현출불동적특점；제일、이、삼산업적파동주요시유공공물질자본투자화인력자본투자적증감변동인기。침대저사현상，아국재공공투자적과정중응당주의협조투자적시간，불부부지관주단기경제증장，경응착안우장기경제증장，보지투자적지속성。
The dynamic effects of public material (physical)capital investment,public human cap-ital investment and public R &D investment on the specific gravity of the primary,the secondary and the tertiary industries post the opening-up of China in 1978 were analysed via VAR model and pulse response function.While impacts were observed in the above-mentioned types of public invest-ment,industrial configuration’s responses have exhibited certain delay and limitation with their indi-vidual influencing direction,extent and duration manifesting different characteristics.The surges of the primary industry,the secondary industry and the tertiary industry in GDP are basically due to fluctuations in public physical capital and human capital investments.To solve such problems,it is suggested that in the subsequent process of increasing public investment,the Government should pay more attention to coordinating investment time to maintain investment’s continuity.