CAJ | 학술논문

在甘肃省陇南市活断层探测与地质填图研究的基础上，归纳了开展地震危险性评估所需的主要活动断裂的基本活动性参数；采用震级-破裂尺度关系、震级-频度关系等方法评估了陇南市相关断裂(带)的潜在最大震级和平均复发间隔；利用时间相依的地震潜势概率模型和泊松分布模型评估了各断裂或断层小区在未来50、100、200年内发生破坏性地震的概率。同时利用 b 值空间图像扫描的方法给出了研究区的 b 值图像，分析了高应力区的地震危险性。通过对以上结果的综合分析，结果表明盖山-迭山断裂或光盖山-迭山断层小区的西端表现为高应力累积区，且发生破坏性地震的概率较高，是未来危险程度较高的断裂段。。
재감숙성롱남시활단층탐측여지질전도연구적기출상，귀납료개전지진위험성평고소수적주요활동단렬적기본활동성삼수；채용진급-파렬척도관계、진급-빈도관계등방법평고료롱남시상관단렬(대)적잠재최대진급화평균복발간격；이용시간상의적지진잠세개솔모형화박송분포모형평고료각단렬혹단층소구재미래50、100、200년내발생파배성지진적개솔。동시이용 b 치공간도상소묘적방법급출료연구구적 b 치도상，분석료고응력구적지진위험성。통과대이상결과적종합분석，결과표명개산-질산단렬혹광개산-질산단층소구적서단표현위고응력루적구，차발생파배성지진적개솔교고，시미래위험정도교고적단렬단。。
Based on active fault mapping in Longnan City, Gansu Province, we determine in this study parameters used in seismic hazard assessment for active faults. Five main fault zones are i-dentified. The first is the Diebu -Bailongjiang fault zone, which ruptured during the M7 earth-quake in 186 BC. The second is the Guanggaishan - Dieshan fault zone, which is separated into three main strands. The north strand had been found to cause a paleo-earthquake, although the Pingding-Huama strand had a significantly faster slip rate. The Hanan-Qingshanwan-Daoxizi fault zone is the third. A surface rupture of approximately 3.5km long was found in the Zhuyuan-ba strand. The fourth is the Lianddang-Jiangluo fault zone, which had strong activity in the Hol-ocene. The fifth is the Wudu-Kangxian fault zone, in which four paleo-earthquakes have occurred since the Late Pleistocene. We estimated potential maximum earthquake magnitude and repeat in-terval time with magnitude-rupture length and magnitude-frequency relationships for every fault or fault sub-area. The probability of destructive earthquake occurrence in the future 50, 100, and 200 years was computed with a time-dependent seismic potential probability model and a Poisson distribution model. The methods for estimating potential maximum earthquake magnitude include four principles:(1)maximum magnitude can be an upper limit magnitude in the same seismic zone and (2)should not be smaller than the largest historical earthquake. (3)It can also be estimated by a relationship, such as M-L and G-R. Moreover, (4)it may have a reference to the maximum mag-nitude in a seismic zone with intensity of VIII degrees during the 200 years since last big earth-quake because the lapsed time is longer than the interval time. The article gives mean maximum magnitudes, which are 7.5,7,7,7, and 6 for the Diebu-Bailongjiang, Guanggaishan-Dieshan, Li-angdang-Jiangluo, Wudu - Kangxian, and Hanan - Qingshanwan - Daoxizi fault zones, respec-tively, with a combination of the four principles. We also used the method of b-value spatial map-ping to reveal high stress or high seismic hazard zones. On the basis of the seismic gaps identified, we used the relationship between magnitude and number or frequency to compute the b value of the study area with small earthquakes of the most recent 40 years. The small earthquakes were re-located with seismological methods. If the area had a lower b value, lower strain was accumulated in the area. We determined higher strain areas from the b value map;such areas are future high seismic hazard zones. We used the maximum curvature method to determine minimum magnitudes of completeness, which are minimum magnitudes of earthquakes for computing the b value. We used a 1°×1°grid for the study area. Every node had ab value that was calculated with at least 50 selected small events. The events for computing the b value were selected by a circle with a par-ticular radius and a node center point. The results indicate that the west Guanggaishan-Dieshan fault zone has a higher potential for seismic hazards in the future;therefore, more attention should be paid to this area. Although many methods were used to prevent error in the results, many unknown parameters remained, which caused our results to have uncertainties.